A smaller than expected canola crop forecast by Statistics Canada lifted canola futures Wednesday, but the price closed well off the high set in the morning.
StatsCan forecasts a 15.2 million tonne canola crop, more than a million tonnes less than the average of analysts’ pre-report expectations.
Canola bucked the trend in U.S. crop markets that were mostly down on profit taking and new yield assessments from the ProFarmer Midwest crop tour that were not as disastrous as on the first two days.
The StatsCan crop production report, based on surveys with more than 15,000 farmers carried out from July 25 to Aug. 1., pegged the average canola yield at 32.8 bushels per acre.
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A Reuters pre-report poll said analysts on average expected a canola yield of 34.7 bu. per acre and production of 16.4 million tonnes. The range of analyst guesses was 15.5 million to 17.1 million tonnes.
A 15.2 million tonne crop would still be a record and would be well above last year’s production of 14.2 million tonnes.
November canola closed at $633.20, up $3.70, or 0.59 percent.
StatsCan pegged Manitoba canola yield at 31.4 bu. per acre, Saskatchewan at 30.5 bu./ac and Alberta at 37.3 bu./ac.
While the canola crop number was below analysts’ forecasts, several said the news backs up recent reports of disappointing yields as farmers begin harvesting. Disease and intense heat in July took a toll on yields.
Statistics Canada also revised its seeded area numbers. Western Canada’s summerfallow area was larger than in the June seeding report. It rose to 4.6 million acres from 3.86 million in June, with Saskatchewan accounting for all of the change.
Wheat production appears to be faring better than canola, although the durum crop is smaller than pre report expectations.
StatsCan pegged all wheat production at 27.01 million tonnes, equal with expectations and up from 25.3 million last year.
The agency pegged spring wheat production at 19.058 million tonnes, up 5.7 percent from 18.03 million last year.
Winter wheat is 3.682 million tonnes, up 20.4 percent from 3.058 million last year.
StatsCan says the durum crop is 4.273 million tonnes, up 2.4 percent from 4.172 million last year. The Reuters poll ranged from 4.6 to 5.1 million to average 4.8 million.
The ICE Futures Canada durum futures contract did not trade and ended flat with the day before.
Oats is 2.994 million tonnes, down 0.1 percent fro 2.997 million last year. That was spot on the Reuters poll average of three million tonnes.
Chicago oats futures closed at $3.955, down 1.5 cents or 0.38 percent, in keeping with generally slightly lower crop prices in Chicago.
Barley is 9.51 million tonnes, up 22.6 percent from 7.76 million last year.
That is more than the average expectation of nine million tonnes, but there was no reaction on the ICE Futures Canada contract.
Flax is 547,000 tonnes, up 48.4 percent from 368,000 tonnes. That is right on expectations.
The dry peas crop is 2.98 million tonnes, up 41 percent from 2.116 million last year. The average trade guess was 3.1 million tonnes.
Fall rye is 312,000 tonnes, up 60 percent from 195,000 tonnes last year.
The report does not have a national number for lentil production. It pegged Saskatchewan lentil crop at 1.304 million tonnes, down from 1.455 million last year.
• A new Reuters poll of analysts shows an average U.S. corn yield per acre at 121.5 bushels, the lowest in 16 years and production at 10.5 billion bu., an eight-year low. The crop total is down three percent from the August USDA report.
The poll put soybean yield at 36.6 bu. per acre, an eight-year low, and production at 2.713 billion bu., a four-year low.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Nov 12 $633.20, up 3.70 +0.59%
Canola Jan 13 $637.00, up 3.00 +0.47%
Canola Mar 13 $638.00, up 2.20 +0.35%
Canola May 13 $625.80, up 3.10 +0.50%
Milling Wheat Oct 12 $296.70, down 3.80 -1.26%
Milling Wheat Dec 12 $303.70, down 3.80 -1.24%
Milling Wheat Mar 13 $313.70, down 3.80 -1.20%
Durum Wheat Oct 12 $301.10, unchanged
Durum Wheat Dec 12 $305.60, unchanged
Durum Wheat Mar 13 $312.20, unchanged
Barley Oct 12 $264.50, unchanged
Barley Dec 12 $269.50, unchanged
Barley Mar 13 $272.50, unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans (P) Sep 12 $17.48, down 5.5 cents -0.31%
Soybeans (P) Nov 12 $17.2775, down 4.75 -0.27%
Soybeans (P) Jan 13 $17.15, down 5.5 -0.32%
Soybeans (P) Mar 13 $16.2325, unchanged
Corn (P) Sep 12 8.3025, down 1.0 (-0.12%)
Corn (P) Dec 12 8.3475, down 4.0 (-0.48%)
Corn (P) Mar 13 $8.3325, down 4.5 -0.54%
Oats (P) Sep 12 $3.93, down 3.75 -0.95%
Oats (P) Dec 12 $3.955, down 1.5 -0.38%
Oats (P) Mar 13 $3.9575, up 0.75 +0.19%
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Sep 12 $9.4175, down 3.0 cents -0.32%
Spring Wheat Dec 12 $9.55, down 4.75 -0.49%
Spring Wheat Mar 13 $9.635, down 3.0 -0.31%
Spring Wheat May 13 $9.69, down 3.25 -0.33%
The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to deliver another round of monetary stimulus “fairly soon” unless the economy improves considerably, minutes from the central bank’s August meeting suggested.
Nearby crude oil futures in New York rose 42 cents to close at $97.26 per barrel.
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was $1.0072 US, down from $1.0138.
The U.S. dollar was 99.29 cents Cdn.
Chicago hog futures fell three percent today on rising supply of hogs going to market as producers, facing high corn costs, cull their herds.
In early tallies:
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 2.07 points, or 0.02 percent, to close at 12,118.99.
The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 30.82 points, or 0.23 percent, to end at 13,172.76.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index edged up 0.32 of a point, or 0.02 percent, to end at 1,413.49.
The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.41 points, or 0.21 percent, to close at 3,073.67.
