Canola closes down only slightly

The constant dampness and encroaching cold spell in Western Canada are having little impact on wheat futures prices.

Price action is mostly left to the cash elevator markets that will dominate real-world deliveries of the widely-varying crop.

But the snow today in Alberta and forcast for repeated frosts this week supported canola futures, which have held up better than U.S. soybean or soybean oil futures, regardless of their minor decline Monday.

While soybean futures fell 13 cents per bushel in nearby months on Monday, canola  fell only a penny or two. Canola was also cushioned by a sharp drop in the value of the Canadian dollar.

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Much of North America’s hard red spring wheat crop is stuck in the field, damp and cold, but damage to quality isn’t showing up in futures prices.

Austin Damiani, a broker with Frontier Futures in Minneapolis, said futures markets still believe the bulk of the crop will eventually e harvested and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange contract isn’t too sensitive to quality concerns.

“There is a protein requirement, but the other requirements are pretty loose in terms of colour, the falling number and some of these things,” said Damiani.

Oats futures have shown more liveliness recently, with quality downgrading compounding fears that the crop supply could be even lower than recently expected.

Both corn and soybean futures were negative Monday, reflecting a big crop that is slowly making its way to market. Fears that frost could hit some areas of  the northern U.S. receded  with updated weather forecasts today.

The USDA is set to publish its monthly crop supply and demand updates on Thursday.

On average, analysts see the U.S. corn crop at 14.288 billion bushels,  up from the USDA’s August estimate of 14.032 billion.

Analysts on average expect the soybean crop will hit 3.883 billion bushels, up from USDA’s August estimate of 3.816 billion.

Crude oil fell Monday and that helped drag down stock market prices. Stocks are lingering near all time record high levels, but the mood has grown darker as poor U.S. employment numbers Friday and a general sense of weakening dynamism challenge some bullish assumptions.

Tuesday will be a day of great interest for stock markets looking for surprises or lack thereof in Apple’s expected product announcements. Almost everyone expects the iPhone 6 to be unveiled, with a bigger-screen version hitting stores soon. There is also speculation that Apple will begin producing a big mobile phone, or “phablet,” to chase demand that Android phones have revealed.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014    421.50    -0.50    -0.12%
Canola Jan 2015    426.20    -1.00    -0.23%
Canola Mar 2015    431.60    -1.20    -0.28%
Canola May 2015    435.30    -1.70    -0.39%
Canola Jul 2015    438.50    -2.70    -0.61%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014    198.00    unch    0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014    204.00    unch    0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015    212.00    unch    0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014    270.00    +20.00    +8.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014    276.00    +20.00    +7.81%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015    277.00    +20.00    +7.78%

Barley Oct 2014    124.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Dec 2014    126.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Mar 2015    127.00    unch    0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2014    1090.75    +5.25    +0.48%
Soybeans Nov 2014    1008.5    -13    -1.27%
Soybeans Jan 2015    1015.5    -12.75    -1.24%
Soybeans Mar 2015    1022    -13    -1.26%
Soybeans May 2015    1027.75    -13.25    -1.27%
Soybeans Jul 2015    1033.25    -14    -1.34%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014    446.2    +10.1    +2.32%
Soybean Meal Oct 2014    353.1    -4.2    -1.18%
Soybean Meal Dec 2014    342.4    -6.7    -1.92%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014    32.03    -0.32    -0.99%
Soybean Oil Oct 2014    31.96    -0.32    -0.99%
Soybean Oil Dec 2014    32.14    -0.34    -1.05%

Corn Sep 2014    339.25    -7.25    -2.09%
Corn Dec 2014    348.25    -7.75    -2.18%
Corn Mar 2015    361.25    -7.5    -2.03%
Corn May 2015    369.75    -7.25    -1.92%
Corn Jul 2015    376.75    -7.5    -1.95%

Oats Sep 2014    377    +8.75    +2.38%
Oats Dec 2014    347    +2    +0.58%
Oats Mar 2015    332.5    unch    0.00%
Oats May 2015    325.25    +0.5    +0.15%
Oats Jul 2015    324.5    +0.75    +0.23%

Wheat Sep 2014    533.5    +2    +0.38%
Wheat Dec 2014    533.5    -1.75    -0.33%
Wheat Mar 2015    550.75    -2.25    -0.41%
Wheat May 2015    562.5    -2.25    -0.40%
Wheat Jul 2015    572    -1.5    -0.26%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2014    630    +3.75    +0.60%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014    610.75    -0.75    -0.12%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015    625.75    unch    0.00%
Spring Wheat May 2015    635.5    unch    0.00%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015    643.75    +0.25    +0.04%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2014    625    +5.25    +0.85%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014    629    +0.5    +0.08%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015    635    -0.25    -0.04%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015    637.25    +0.5    +0.08%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015    625    +0.75    +0.12%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 63 cents at $92.66 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.47 cents US, down from 91.83 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0933 Cdn.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite fell 60.53 points or 0.39 percent to 15,509.39.

The Dow fell 25.94 points or 0.15 percent, to 17,111.42, the S&P 500 lost 6.18 points or 0.31 percent, to 2,001.53 and the Nasdaq Composite added 9.39 points or 0.2 percent, to 4,592.29.