Sudden weakness at the end of trade resulted in only modest gains for ICE Futures canola contracts after spending most of the day significantly higher.
November canola closed at $511, up only $2.90 after climbing as high as $520 earlier in the morning.
Support came from U.S. weather, today’s Statistics Canada crop production report and a weaker loonie.
The agency pegged the canola crop at a record 14.7 million tonnes. However, the average of pre-report private analyst forecasts was quite a bit higher, at 15.5 million tonnes.
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Last year’s crop was 13.3 million.
StatsCan pegged yield at 33.7 bu. per acre, up from last year’s 27.7 bu.
The canola yield estimates by province: Manitoba 33.2 bu. per acre, Saskatchewan 31.2 bu., Alberta 38 bu.
StatsCan interviewed about 15,000 farmers July 24-Aug. 5. Analysts expect the favourable growing conditions in August will cause StatsCan to increase its crop estimate in its next report, due Oct. 4.
There was light frost in spots in western Alberta overnight.
Gains in canola were limited by falling soy oil and by commercial hedging.
Chicago wheat rose with corn and soybeans, which were propelled higher by a shift in the Midwest forecast. It now sees even drier and warmer weather next week.
Minneapolis wheat fell, pressured by the StatsCan forecast that put the Canadian all wheat harvest at 30.6 million tonnes, the biggest in 22 years and up 12.9 percent from 2012.
Spring wheat production is pegged at 21.83 million tonnes (18.85 million last year), durum at 5.12 million (4.63 million) and winter wheat at 3.62 million (3.73 million.)
It will be interesting to see how the grain handling system responds to these very large crops.
To see StatsCan’s take on all the principle field crops click here.
Producers looking for a pricing opportunity might consider taking advantage of the current futures price rally and fairly strong basis. Once combines start rolling on this huge crop prices could be under pressure.
Of course the threat of frost remians. The rest of August looks ok but September holds threats.
Accuweather yesterday had this to say:
“After a warm start to September, weeks three and four of the month in the Midwest will start to feel this chill and could be marked by an early frost or freeze for the corn and soybean growing area, about two or three weeks earlier than usual.
With temperatures forecast to drop to the mid- to low 30s(F), this could create a shorter growing season for farmers, who already suffered a slow start to planting due to heavy rainfall in the spring.”
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 511.00 +2.90 +0.57%
Canola Jan 2014 515.90 +2.60 +0.51%
Canola Mar 2014 521.30 +2.70 +0.52%
Canola May 2014 525.60 +2.40 +0.46%
Canola Jul 2014 530.10 +2.40 +0.45%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 251.00 -1.00 -0.40%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 256.00 -1.00 -0.39%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 261.00 -1.00 -0.38%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 286.00 -3.00 -1.04%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 290.00 -4.00 -1.36%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 300.00 -4.00 -1.32%
Barley Oct 2013 189.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 194.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2013 1333 +23.75 +1.81%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1304 +13.5 +1.05%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1305.5 +13.75 +1.06%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1281.5 +10.5 +0.83%
Soybeans May 2014 1254.25 +8.75 +0.70%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1252.75 +8 +0.64%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 421.5 +7.7 +1.86%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013 409.9 +5.1 +1.26%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 408.1 +6.1 +1.52%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 42.82 -0.06 -0.14%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013 42.9 -0.04 -0.09%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 43.17 -0.01 -0.02%
Corn Sep 2013 498 +14.25 +2.95%
Corn Dec 2013 483.25 +7.75 +1.63%
Corn Mar 2014 495.75 +7.25 +1.48%
Corn May 2014 503 +6.5 +1.31%
Corn Jul 2014 509 +6.75 +1.34%
Oats Sep 2013 384 +1.75 +0.46%
Oats Dec 2013 336 +1.75 +0.52%
Oats Mar 2014 340.25 +2.75 +0.81%
Oats May 2014 338.5 +1 +0.30%
Oats Jul 2014 330.75 -11 -3.22%
Wheat Sep 2013 638.75 +4.5 +0.71%
Wheat Dec 2013 649.25 +3.25 +0.50%
Wheat Mar 2014 660.75 +3.25 +0.49%
Wheat May 2014 667 +3 +0.45%
Wheat Jul 2014 662.5 +0.75 +0.11%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 728.75 -6.25 -0.85%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 735.75 -3.25 -0.44%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 748 -2 -0.27%
Spring Wheat May 2014 755 -1.5 -0.20%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 758.25 -1 -0.13%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 699.5 +2.75 +0.39%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 701.75 +2.5 +0.36%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 708.5 +1.75 +0.25%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 711.5 +1 +0.14%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 702 +1.25 +0.18%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.26 at $103.85 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 95.76 cents US, down from 96.38 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0443 Cdn.
Stock market trading was choppy in advance of the afternoon release of the U.S. Federal reserve monthly meeting minutes
The minutes of the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting showed that almost all of the 12 members of the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee agreed changing the stimulus was not yet appropriate.
U.S. home resales climbed in July to their highest level in over three years.
The TSX composite index fell 97.03 points or 0.77 percent to 12,573.08.
The Dow Jones industrial average was down 105.60 points, or 0.70 percent, at 14,897.39.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 9.51 points, or 0.58 percent, at 1,642.84.
The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 13.80 points, or 0.38 percent, at 3,599.79.
