Canola climbs three percent on week

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Published: March 3, 2017

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May canola closed higher on Friday with support from a weaker loonie and stronger soybean oil futures.

Other grain futures changed little on the day.

May canola closed at $532.60 up $4.20 a tonne.

New crop November closed at $512.30 up $3.60.

Over the week May rose $15.90 a tonne or 3.1 percent while November climbed $14.50 or 2.9 percent.

Earlier in the week crop futures rose on reports that the Trump administration might alter the requirement for refineries to blend biofuel into gasoline and diesel and push the responsibility to the retail level.

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ICE Canada Weekly: Decent outlook of old, new crop weigh on canola futures

The outlook for canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange appears to be on a downward slide, said Bill Craddock, a Manitoba-based trader and farmer.

Also there was speculation that the government would back additional supports for ethanol and biodiesel.

The White House later denied the reports but although crop markets gave back some of the gains, they held on to some.

The rally attracted new investments from big commodity funds.

Canola also benefited from an 1.6 cent decline in the value of the Canadian dollar over the past week. It is now trading at less than US75 cents.

The rally triggered farmers to sell a lot of canola before the attention returns to the price depressing news of massive crops coming from South America.

The harvest in Brazil’s largest soy state Mato Grosso is now into the home stretch, but truck movement to ports has been delayed by rain and muddy roads.

CANOLA CRUSH

The weekly canola crush to March 1 was 183,613 tonnes, down 8.8 percent from the week before, said the Canadian Oilseed Prodcessors Association.

That was almost 86 percent of capacity, falling short of the pace to date of almost 90 percent.

The total crush so far this crop year to 5.44 million tonnes, is up almost 14 percent over the 4.78 million crushed last year.

EXPORTS

Weekly exports stormed back after a poor performance in week 29 when rain and snow at the West Coast and in the Rockies impeded movement and loading.

In week 30 to Feb. 26 exports shipped totalled slightly more than one million tonnes, well up from the weather-stalled previous week when only 544,500 tonnes were shipped, according to data from the Canadian Grain Commission.

Canola exports in week 30 were 332,400 tonnes, up from 158,600 the week before.

Canola exports to date are 6.25 million, up 594,800 tonnes or 10.5 percent over last year.

Wheat exports also picked up, with shipments of 362,300 tonnes well up from 94,000 tonnes the week before.

But wheat shipments for the year remain behind last year with only 7.61 million tonnes moved, down from 9.51 million last year.

SHIPS WAITING

With the previous week’s poor performance, the number of ships in the lineup for Vancouver rose to 30 in week 30 but loading over the weekend helped to lower that to 26 by the the beginning of week 31, according to the Grain Monitoring Program performance update issued by Quorum Corp., the federally appointed grain shipping monitor.

Prince Rupert line up fell to six vessels.

CURRENCY

The loonie has been falling because the U.S. dollar has gained against most currencies as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve will likely increase interest rates at its March 14-15 meeting unless there is a surprise change in economic conditions in the meantime. In a speech today, Fed chair Janet Yellen said a rate hike would be “appropriate” if inflation and job creation are within expectations.

The rate hike would be designed to keep the American economy from overheating as it gains momentum.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 72 cents to US$53.33 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar was trading around US74.75 cents in the afternoon, little changed from 74.70 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at close was C$1.3378.

Rising oil prices helped lift the Toronto Stock Exchange composite. It climbed 71.85 points or 0.46 percent to close at 15,608.50.

Wall Street was flat today

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.06 points, or 0.01 percent, to 21,004.03, the S&P 500 gained 1.04 points, or 0.04 percent, to 2,382.96 and the Nasdaq Composite added 9.53 points, or 0.16 percent, to 5,870.75.

For the week, the TSX composite was up 0.5 percent, the Dow was up 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 was up 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq was up 0.4 percent.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2017   532.60   +4.20   +0.79%

Canola Jul 2017   534.30   +3.50   +0.66%

Canola Nov 2017   512.30   +3.60   +0.71%

Canola Jan 2018   516.40   +2.60   +0.51%

Canola Mar 2018   518.90   +2.30   +0.45%

 

Milling Wheat May 2017   238.00   -2.00   -0.83%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017   240.00   -2.00   -0.83%

Milling Wheat Oct 2017   231.00   -1.00   -0.43%

 

Durum Wheat May 2017   282.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017   281.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2017   268.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley May 2017   137.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Jul 2017   138.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2017   138.00   unch   0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2017   1027.00   +0.25   +0.02%

Soybeans May 2017   1037.50   +0.25   +0.02%

Soybeans Jul 2017   1046.00   +0.25   +0.02%

Soybeans Aug 2017   1046.00   +0.25   +0.02%

Soybeans Sep 2017   1032.00   unch   0.00%

Soybeans Nov 2017   1022.00   +0.25   +0.02%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 2017   328.80   -2.00   -0.60%

Soybean Meal May 2017   333.00   -1.80   -0.54%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017   336.00   -1.90   -0.56%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 2017 34.13   +0.25   +0.74%

Soybean Oil May 2017   34.38   +0.25   +0.73%

Soybean Oil Jul 2017   34.65   +0.25   +0.73%

 

Corn Mar 2017   374.75   +2.00   +0.54%

Corn May 2017   380.75   +1.25   +0.33%

Corn Jul 2017   387.25   +1.00   +0.26%

Corn Sep 2017   393.00   +0.75   +0.19%

Corn Dec 2017   399.25   +0.75   +0.19%

 

Oats Mar 2017   260.50   +3.25   +1.26%

Oats May 2017   242.25   +4.00   +1.68%

Oats Jul 2017   239.25   +3.00   +1.27%

Oats Sep 2017   232.75   +2.50   +1.09%

Oats Dec 2017   235.50   +3.25   +1.40%

 

Wheat Mar 2017   433.75   +1.75   +0.41%

Wheat May 2017   453.50   +0.75   +0.17%

Wheat Jul 2017   468.25   +1.25   +0.27%

Wheat Sep 2017   482.25   +1.00   +0.21%

Wheat Dec 2017   500.00   +0.25   +0.05%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2017   537.00   -3.25   -0.60%

Spring Wheat May 2017   547.75   -5.25   -0.95%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017   554.00   -4.75   -0.85%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017   560.50   -4.00   -0.71%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017   571.50   -2.50   -0.44%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017   462.00   +1.75   +0.38%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017   471.75   +1.50   +0.32%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017   483.25   +1.50   +0.31%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017   496.50   +1.00   +0.20%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017   515.50   +0.50   +0.10%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017   115.98   -0.17   -0.15%

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017   106.75   +0.03   +0.03%

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017   102.28   +0.33   +0.32%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017   124.22   +0.77   +0.62%

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017   122.95   +1.03   +0.84%

Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017   122.40   +0.68   +0.56%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017   66.75   -1.53   -2.24%

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017   72.75   -1.35   -1.82%

Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017   76.45   -1.35  -1.74%

 

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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