Canola futures bucked the trend Tuesday, rising while all other crop commodities ended the day lower.
Canola rose on fund buying and a weak loonie. There are also ideas that it is underpriced relative to soybeans.
The farmer is not seeing a lot of the gains in the futures so far this new year because basis levels have widened out.
While basis is different at each company, elevator and crushing plant, ICE Futures Canada posts a daily “best basis.” Today’s posting for the par region based on the March contract is -$20. In mid December it was about -$15.
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The other crop markets were still adjusting to the USDA reports issued Monday.
Generally, the reports were bearish for soybeans, a little bullish for corn and mixed for wheat.
The report increased the estimate of the U.S. soybean crop, kept U.S. year end soybean stocks unchanged, raised global year end soybean stocks and raised the forecast for Brazil’s crop by 1.5 million tonnes.
The market is starting to prepare for the flood of new crop South American soybeans that will start to become available in about a month
Over Monday and today, March soybeans have fallen 48.25 cents a bushel or 4.6 percent.
The report was bullish for corn. The estimates for U.S. and world corn stocks at the end of the crop year were less than the average of trade expectations.
However, corn futures fell about four percent today on spill over negativity from soybeans and a sign of technical weakness when an early rally failed to top the previous day’s high.
Weakness in ethanol also weighed on corn as did the strong American buck that makes it more expensive for foreign buyers to buy U.S.
A factor working against both corn and soybeans was the bullish news for wheat that winter crop seedings in the U.S. were lower than expected.
U.S. farmers cut their winter wheat plantings by 4.6 percent or about two million acres to 40.452 million, below forecasts ranging from 41 million to 44 million.
That means about two million additional acres are available for spring seeded crops.
The bullish effect on wheat prices was watered down by the increase in forecasted U.S. and global wheat ending stocks.
All three U.S. wheat contracts fell more than one percent today, partly on the weakness in corn.
This was despite news that Russia was further strengthening informal restrictions on grain exports and Ukraine’s agriculture ministry asked traders for a voluntary cap on milling wheat exports at 200,000 tonnes per month in January and February.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 18 cents to US$45.89 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US83.70 cents, down from 83.82 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.1948.
Worries about weakness in commodity prices weighed again on stock markets.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down about 77.85 points, or 0.55 percent, at 14,187.16.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 27.16 points, or 0.15 percent, to 17,613.68.
The S&P 500 lost 5.23 points, or 0.26 percent, to 2,023.03.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.21 points, or 0.07 percent, to 4,661.50.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jan 2015 464.10 +3.70 +0.80%
Canola Mar 2015 450.30 +3.70 +0.83%
Canola May 2015 446.90 +2.90 +0.65%
Canola Jul 2015 443.90 +2.00 +0.45%
Canola Nov 2015 430.20 -0.20 -0.05%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015 214.00 -3.00 -1.38%
Milling Wheat May 2015 217.00 -3.00 -1.36%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015 220.00 -2.00 -0.90%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015 365.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2015 355.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015 345.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2015 182.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2015 184.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2015 186.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jan 2015 1000 -13.5 -1.33%
Soybeans Mar 2015 1004 -12 -1.18%
Soybeans May 2015 1010 -11.75 -1.15%
Soybeans Jul 2015 1015.75 -11 -1.07%
Soybeans Aug 2015 1014.5 -10.5 -1.02%
Soybeans Sep 2015 999 -8.75 -0.87%
Soybean Meal Jan 2015 349.7 -6.8 -1.91%
Soybean Meal Mar 2015 333.6 -7.6 -2.23%
Soybean Meal May 2015 328.3 -7.1 -2.12%
Soybean Oil Jan 2015 32.39 -0.06 -0.18%
Soybean Oil Mar 2015 32.54 -0.06 -0.18%
Soybean Oil May 2015 32.68 -0.07 -0.21%
Corn Mar 2015 385.75 -16.25 -4.04%
Corn May 2015 393.5 -16.5 -4.02%
Corn Jul 2015 400.25 -16.5 -3.96%
Corn Sep 2015 405.5 -15 -3.57%
Corn Dec 2015 412 -14 -3.29%
Oats Mar 2015 293.25 -5 -1.68%
Oats May 2015 297 -3.25 -1.08%
Oats Jul 2015 300.75 -4.5 -1.47%
Oats Sep 2015 302 -4.5 -1.47%
Oats Dec 2015 302 -1.75 -0.58%
Wheat Mar 2015 548 -7.5 -1.35%
Wheat May 2015 552 -8 -1.43%
Wheat Jul 2015 557.5 -7.25 -1.28%
Wheat Sep 2015 565 -6.25 -1.09%
Wheat Dec 2015 576.25 -6 -1.03%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 588.5 -6.75 -1.13%
Spring Wheat May 2015 595.5 -7 -1.16%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 603.5 -6.25 -1.03%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 610.25 -6.25 -1.01%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 619.25 -6 -0.96%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 581.75 -8.75 -1.48%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015 586 -9.5 -1.60%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 591 -9.25 -1.54%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 601.75 -8.75 -1.43%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 615.75 -9 -1.44%
