Canola and other crop futures fall on harvest pressure, worries about China demand

Canola had a less-bad day than its sister North American vegoil commodities, which was about the best thing that could be said about Monday’s futures market.

On Friday canola was the weak sister as soybeans rose, but Monday it was the tough one, handling a lot of downward pressure across markets without taking big losses.

“Canola lagged by five, six, seven dollars (a tonne) on the way up (Friday) and it lagged by about the same amount on the way down (Monday),” said broker Ken Ball of P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.

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November canola futures fell $2.50 per tonne to $473.80 and January fell $2.70 to $478.80.

November canola was down about a half percent while November soybeans fell 1.4 percent and soy oil fell 1.95 percent.

Spring wheat futures were little changed on the day likely due to reports of poor North American weather possibly causing quality downgrades. Chicago and Kansas wheat closed slightly lower.

Statistics Canada will release a farmer survey-based forecast of Canadian crop production on Friday.

Stock markets were shaken by fresh fears that China’s economy is losing momentum and not finding much new fuel to power the world’s demand growth engine.

Crop markets were also weakened by heavy harvest pressure, with much harvesting expected across the U.S. this week. Most of the U.S. corn and soybean crops are still in the field, so overall pressure on feedgrain and vegetable oil markets will likely be a factor for weeks.

Traders are awaiting the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s quarterly stocks report on Wednesday, a report that will provide a better sense of how much room U.S. farmers have in their bins to store the new crop.

If they have less room than expected, traders will probably anticipate more off-the-combine sales, which would be a bearish factor.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015   473.80   -2.50   -0.52%
Canola Jan 2016   478.80   -2.70   -0.56%
Canola Mar 2016   481.00   -2.80   -0.58%
Canola May 2016   481.30   -2.40   -0.50%
Canola Jul 2016   480.60   -1.80   -0.37%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015   237.00   unch   0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015   241.00   unch   0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016   246.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015   345.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015   345.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016   350.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2015   184.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Dec 2015   184.00   unch   0.00%
Barley Mar 2016   186.00   unch   0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2015   876.75   -12.5   -1.41%
Soybeans Jan 2016   880.75   -12.5   -1.40%
Soybeans Mar 2016   885.25   -12.25   -1.36%
Soybeans May 2016   888.25   -11.25   -1.25%
Soybeans Jul 2016   893   -10.75   -1.19%
Soybeans Aug 2016   892.5   -10.5   -1.16%

Soybean Meal Oct 2015   304.7   -4   -1.30%
Soybean Meal Dec 2015   304.1   -4.1   -1.33%
Soybean Meal Jan 2016   303.1   -3.8   -1.24%

Soybean Oil Oct 2015   27.18   -0.54   -1.95%
Soybean Oil Dec 2015   27.37   -0.54   -1.93%
Soybean Oil Jan 2016   27.69   -0.52   -1.84%

Corn Dec 2015   386.75   -2.25   -0.58%
Corn Mar 2016   398   -2.25   -0.56%
Corn May 2016   405   -2.5   -0.61%
Corn Jul 2016   410.25   -2.5   -0.61%
Corn Sep 2016   402.75   -2.25   -0.56%

Oats Dec 2015   229.25   -2   -0.86%
Oats Mar 2016   232.25   -1   -0.43%
Oats May 2016   236.5   -1   -0.42%
Oats Jul 2016   237.25   -1   -0.42%
Oats Sep 2016   237.25   -1   -0.42%

Wheat Dec 2015   505.5   -2.25   -0.44%
Wheat Mar 2016   512.75   -2.25   -0.44%

Wheat May 2016   517.5   -2   -0.38%
Wheat Jul 2016   520   -2.75   -0.53%
Wheat Sep 2016   528.25   -2.5   -0.47%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2015   522.75   unch   0.00%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016   536.75   +0.5   +0.09%
Spring Wheat May 2016   546.5   +0.25   +0.05%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016   556.5   +0.25   +0.04%
Spring Wheat Sep 2016   567.5   +0.75   +0.13%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015   497.5   -2.75   -0.55%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   512.5   -2.25   -0.44%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016   522.25   -2.5   -0.48%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   531.5   -2.25   -0.42%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016   545   -2.5   -0.46%

Contact ed.white@producer.com