SAO PAULO, (Reuters) – Planting of Brazil’s new soybean crop is about to start in most producing regions and output is expected to increase by 5.5 percent compared with the previous crop to a record 121.41 million tonnes, broker and consultancy INTL FCStone said on Thursday.
It expects planting growth of 1.6 percent in the new cycle, which is smaller than growth rates in recent years, confirming a view from another forecaster this week.
Total area is seen reaching 36.4 million hectares (89.9 million acres) in the new crop. Growth is expected in center-west Brazil, where soy would be planted in former pasture and sugarcane fields, and in the south, replacing rice crops in the Rio Grande do Sul state, FCStone said.
It sees agricultural yields recovering after problems with drought last year.
“Regarding exports, a larger crop would open room for higher shipments, but it will all depend on the size of Chinese buying and on a possible trade deal with the United States,” grain analyst Ana Luiza Lodi said.
She projected exports in the new crop at 75 million tonnes, up from 70 million tonnes in 2018/19.
The consultancy sees a tight end-stock for soybeans in Brazil currently, at only 1.41 million tonnes.