WASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters) – U.S. corn and soybean production in 2014 – already pegged at record highs – will be higher than expected a month ago and somewhat above trade expectations, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Thursday.
At 14.395 billion bushels, the corn crop beat out trade estimates averaging 14.288 billion. Ending stocks were forecast to exceed the 2-billion-bushel mark for the first time in a decade.
USDA estimated the U.S. soybean crop at a record 3.913 billion bushels, up 19 percent on the year and above trade expectations averaging 3.883 billion. That opens the door a bit wider for a once unthought-of 4-billion bushel crop to be harvested this fall.
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Ending stocks will more than triple in 2014/15 from the tightest in four decades, at 475 million bushels.
At the start of this week 74 percent of corn and 72 percent of soybeans were rated in good to excellent condition after favorable rains in August.
At this point, on the eve of harvest, the major threat to the crop would be a widespread early freeze to cut short what has been a highly successful U.S. growing season.
Overall corn yields will be a record 171.7 bushels per acre, with 18 states expected to post new yield marks. Sept. 1 data indicated the highest number of ears on record for the 10 key corn producing states, USDA said.
Soybeans were also in great shape. As a group the 11 major producing states had a higher pod count than a year ago, and development was slightly ahead of normal.
Thirteen states are on pace for record high soybean yields, USDA said, including No. 1 producer Illinois.
Projected U.S. season-average prices for soybeans were lowered by 35 cents per bushel, and for wheat and corn by 40 cents per bushel to reflect recent market price declines.
New-crop corn supplies will be a record 15.607 billion bushels. USDA raised its projected 2014/15 ethanol usage figure to 5.125 billion bushels, matching 2013/14.
CHINA, ARGENTINA CORN CROPS LOWERED
USDA raised 2014/15 world corn ending stocks even while cutting production in China and Argentina, partly to pass through higher beginning supplies.
The Chinese crop was cut by 5 million tonnes, to 217 million, based on dryness in the North China Plain and Northeast. But projected Chinese imports were steady at 3 million tonnes.
For Argentina, in the midst of a financial crisis, USDA cited lower expected plantings in trimming the crop by 3 million tonnes. Some farmers there are expected to have trouble financing their plantings.
USDA raised its 2014/15 world wheat ending stocks forecast to over 196 million tonnes, above expectations. Much of the production increase came from the EU and Ukraine, up a combined 5.1 million tonnes.
Forecasts for soybean production in Brazil and Argentina were raised, helping to push projected global stocks up sharply. China’s projected imports, already massive, were raised by another 1 million tonnes to 74 million.
USDA increased its world wheat production estimate to 719.95 million tonnes from 716.09 million in August. Last year’s crop was 714.05 million.
USDA revised upward its forecast for wheat crops in Russia, Ukraine, the European Union and Australia., It slightly trimmed Argentina’s crop forecast.
Global 2014-15 wheat ending stock rise to 196.38 million tonnes from 192.96 million last month. Ending stocks for 2013-14 were 186.45 million tonnes.
