Seeding progress in Saskatchewan is not much different than last year but for some growers the situation feels far more ominous.
In its second crop report of 2011, Saskatchewan Agriculture said seeding was one percent complete as of May 2, compared to two percent a year ago.
The numbers are similar but the circumstances are not, say some growers.
“I’m increasingly worried that things are ugly,” said agriculture commentator Kevin Hursh, who farms near Cabri, Sask.
“There has been damn little seeding, so how’s it all going to add up? We could have a whole lot of area that’s at production risk from early frost.”
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Hursh considers himself fortunate. His small farm is located in a pocket of the province with fairly good seeding conditions. He had planted about one-quarter of his 1,500 acres as of May 4.
But for other farmers it’s looking grim.
“I think we’re on the cusp of a really big mess in eastern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba,” he said.
Hursh thinks the biggest difference between this year and last year is that in 2010 the rains came and didn’t stop but not before some growers had a good jump on seeding. In 2011 it seems like everybody is starting out with soggy fields.
As a result, he expects to see more unseeded acres than last year unless the tap turns off and it becomes abnormally dry for the next five weeks.
“But what are the odds of that happening?” said Hursh.
Lyle Simonson said conditions are definitely worse on his farm near Swift Current, Sask.
“This time last year we were probably half done seeding and hadn’t gone around a puddle or a pot hole,” he said during a May 4 interview.
“I’ve only been out in the field for a day and we’ve already been stuck once and it’s lucky it was only once.”
He agreed with Hursh that the poor seeding conditions are more widespread than they were in the spring of 2010.
Farmers are easily two weeks behind normal in his area of the province and they don’t dare seed at night. Even in the daytime there are lots of danger areas concealed by thick cereal stubble from last year’s heavy crop.
He is increasingly worried about the late seeding.
“You’re pushing it at the other end for frost and if you get a cool, wet summer then you’ve really got a problem,” said Simonson.
Grant McLean, cropping management specialist with Saskatchewan Agriculture, said the next couple of weeks will tell the tale but he certainly hasn’t given up hope for the 2011 crop.
“All is not lost,” he said.
The crop was slow out of the gate last year but by May 24 more than half of it had been planted.
“We still have a significant portion of the province that has the real opportunity to make those sorts of advances,” he said.
While there are major challenges in the east-central and southeastern portions of the province, a lot of farms in the northwest and west-central regions are in better shape than they were a year ago due to plentiful soil moisture.
McLean noted that despite the late start, the 2010 crop was in fantastic condition prior to harvest rains causing considerable downgrading in quality. There could easily be a repeat of that summer surge in 2011.
“We’ve got the moisture. All we need is some warm temperatures to get things going now,” he said.
