A strengthening La Nina could deliver higher than usual early and late winter precipitation to the Canadian Prairies and delay seeding in some regions next year, says a weather expert.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts the ocean phenomenon that effects atmospheric conditions will become a “strong episode” from November 2010 through January 2011 before gradually weakening.
Nearly all forecast models expect La Nina to last at least into spring 2011, with some suggesting it could persist until summer 2011.
Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc., said farmers in the Canadian Prairies can expect a cold winter with above average precipitation at the start, below normal in the middle and a wet finish.
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He forecasts a colder than normal spring, which means farmers could once again be delayed getting onto their fields.
“The start of the growing season is not going to be horrendous but it’s not going to be real pleasant either. We will be slow in getting the crops in the ground (next) year,” said Lerner.
Grant McLean, cropping management specialist with Saskatchewan Agriculture, said that’s not good news for those farmers heading into winter with saturated fields.
“(They) were hoping for an early, dry spring,” he said.
David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada, said it is unusual to go from a strong El Nino last winter to a strong La Nina this winter.
Last year’s El Nino was responsible for a mild winter once it arrived in January. The opposite is true for La Nina events.
There have been 19 La Ninas in the past 60 years, 15 of which resulted in colder than normal temperatures and 13 of which delivered more precipitation than normal.
But the link between La Ninas and prairie weather is becoming less certain due to the competing forces of climate change.
“It’s not a sure thing anymore,” said Phillips. However, he is pretty sure Western Canada is about to transition from a mild to a harsh winter as La Nina’s influence builds.
Environment Canada’s forecast for mid-November through mid-December is for colder and snowier than normal weather.
The remainder of winter will be colder than normal, while precipitation is expected to be normal.
Lerner said La Nina’s impact will be most pronounced in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan, which could create difficult seeding conditions in those areas.
“I don’t think it’s going to be excessively wet but we will have issues,” he said.
“We will have some standing water issues and some soggy field conditions to deal with early in the spring.”
McLean said fields in northeastern and east-central Saskatchewan are in the worst shape heading into winter.
Moisture conditions are ideal in many other areas of the province, although almost every farm has its soggy spots.
Phillips said farmers shouldn’t fret too much about precipitation this winter because snowfall accounts for only a small amount of the yearly precipitation total.
