Old crop canola futures rise to ration demand

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Published: March 28, 2012

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Nearby canola futures on Wednesday edged higher as the market attempts to ration demand for tight old crop supply, but new crop closed lower on fund selling, weaker corn futures and expectations for large new crop acreage.

May canola closed at  $609.10 per tonne, $2.20

November closed at $560.50, down $1.90.

Corn fell despite trade reports that private Chinese importers bought six cargoes, or about 360,000 tonnes, of U.S. corn for shipment in May and June.

Soybeans weakened slightly.

Corn and soybean prices are jockeying for position. Expectations that a planting report from the USDA on Friday will show a large increase in corn seeding weighed on corn values in recent days, as did mild weather which will encourage an early start to seeding.

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U.S. grains: Soybean futures set two-week high on US weather worry, soyoil rally

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures touched a two-week high on Friday on worries that heat may threaten U.S. crops and expectations that the country’s biofuel policy would boost demand for soyoil, analysts said.

There are also concerns about a possibility for a surprise in the USDA’s corn stocks report on Friday. Last year, the stocks were smaller than expected setting off a strong rally.

This year the stocks might be higher than expected.

With corn falling, it lowers the pressure for soybean values to rise. However, because  the South American soybean crop was hurt by drought, the market needs to ensure a large North American oilseed crop is seeded.

• Barley production has lagged in recent years globally, but there is expectation that we could see a lot more grown this summer. Area in Europe and Ukraine damaged by winter frosts will likely be reseeded with spring barley and corn. Argentina is expected to increase barley area this year by 50 percent, cutting into wheat area. Government restrictions on wheat exports there have farmers shifting to barley.

• Crude oil fell Wednesday on larger than expected stocks of crude oil in the U.S. and on talk that the U.S. and other countries might release oil from their strategic oil reserves to pressure oil lower.

• More details of the CWB’s grain marketing contract programs will be released Thursday morning.

• The U.S. hard red winter wheat crop is in good shape.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola May 12  $609.10, up $2.20  +0.36%

Canola Jul 12  $606.50, up $1.60  +0.26%

Canola Nov 12  $560.50, down $1.90  -0.34%

Canola Jan 13  $564.80, down $1.60  -0.28%

The previous day’s best canola basis was 60 cents over the May contract, according to ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg.

The 14-day relative strength index was 77.

Western Barley May 12  $229.00, unchanged

Western Barley Jul 12  $232.00, unchanged

Milling Wht Oct 12  $262.50, unchanged

Milling Wht Dec 12  $267.50, unchanged

Milling Wht Mar 13  $272.50, unchanged

Durum Wht Oct 12  $275.00, unchanged

Durum Wht Dec 12  $279.50, unchanged

Durum Wht Mar 13  $286.10, unchanged

Barley Oct 12  $185.00, unchanged

Barley Dec 12  $188.50, unchanged

Barley Mar 13  $190.00, unchanged

 

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans May 12  $13.675, down 2.25 cents  -0.16%

Soybeans Jul 12  $13.73, down 3.25  -0.24%

Soybeans Nov 12  $13.205, down 7.25  -0.55%

Corn May 12  $6.2025, down 10.5  -1.66%

Corn Jul 12  $6.195, down 11.25  -1.78%

Corn Dec 12  $5.3625, down 14.0  -2.54%

Oats May 12  $3.4225, up 2.25  +0.66%

Oats Jul 12  $3.375, up 3.75  +1.12%

Oats Dec 12  $3.42, up 2.00  +0.59%

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wht May 12  $7.9775, down 8.5 cents -1.05%

Spring Wht Jul 12  $7.925, down 10.0  -1.25%

Spring Wht Sep 12  $7.7875, down 8.25  -1.05%

Spring Wht Dec 12  $7.8175, down 7.75  -0.98%

The nearby New York light sweet crude contract in late trade was down $1.87 at $105.46.

Brent May crude fell $1.38, or 1.10 percent, to settle at $124.16 a barrel, having traded from $123.53 to $125.18.

The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0016 US, down from $1.0073 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 0.9984 Cdn.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX unofficially closed down 98.18 points, or 0.78 percent, at 12,413.86.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 71.52 points, or 0.54 percent, to end unofficially at 13,126.21. The S&P 500 Index fell 6.98 points, or 0.49 percent, to close unofficially at 1,405.54. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 15.39 points, or 0.49 percent, to finish unofficially at 3,104.96.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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