Better seasonal and long-range forecasts will help farmers adapt to climate variability and change, a workshop here was told last week.
Ted O’Brien, of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration prairie agroclimate unit, told the long-range weather and crop forecasting workshop that the unit expects to release a strategy by May 2002.
“We want to improve capacity to respond to short and long-term climate variability,” O’Brien said.
Seasonal forecasts allow farmers to choose crops that fit into rotations and still accommodate expected weather conditions.
“What crops can be grown if we’re going to be experiencing a dry season?” O’Brien said.
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Variety resistance is getting more specific on crop disease pathogens, but that information must be conveyed in a way that actually helps producers make rotation decisions.
Similarly, farmers need to make choices if a wet year is ahead.
They can choose to modify conservation practices to reduce risks of erosion, in either dry or wet conditions, O’Brien said, and livestock producers could better manage water supplies and pastures.
“They might be advised to have their dugout pump-filled in the fall rather than rely on spring runoff.”
In the longer term, climate change is expected to alter farming practices.
“We recognize the scenarios of climate change present both opportunities and risks over time to prairie agriculture,” O’Brien said.
“Seasonal climate prediction is a solution for improved adaptation to climate change.”
O’Brien said most activities now focus on how to deal with climatic events as they happen. PFRA is concerned mainly with water supplies.
With improved information, researchers could be developing more drought-resistant crops and farmers could be better prepared for situations such as back-to-back droughts.
“It wasn’t a bad 100 years,” O’Brien said, referring to data presented at the workshop about the droughts of the 1900s. “We certainly have droughts to look forward to. How do we prepare long term, with and without the greenhouse gas issues?”
