STEINBACH, Man. – Many hog farmers are banking on high prices to make up for the crippling losses of the last few years.
However, producers shouldn’t assume they’ll receive $200 per hog, says Perry Mohr, general manager of Hams Marketing Services.
“I would never say never, but … in the next year it is probably minimal,” he said during a meeting in Steinbach.
“I would say short-term we should probably get our minds set around hog prices between $140 and $170. I’d say that’s a realistic expectation.”
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Chicago lean hog futures prices would have to be $110 US per hundredweight for farmers to receive $200 per hog, and that’s far above where they are today.
A futures price of $70 per cwt.
would bring farmers $200 per hog if the value of the Canadian dollar dropped dramatically, but that is unlikely considering the loonie is almost at par.
However, there’s a better chance of obtaining profits of $50 per hog if hog prices are high enough and barley prices are low enough, Mohr said.
If Canadian cash hog prices are $140 per one hundred kilograms ($64 per cwt.), which is at the low end of Mohr’s expected range for the next year, then barley prices would have to be $1.18 per bushel to reach $50 per hog profit.
However, that isn’t likely.
But if hog prices reach $170 per ckg ($77 per cwt.), which is the high end of Mohr’s range, then barley prices could be $3.19 per bu. and still provide profits of $50 per hog.
“I would say that’s within the realm of possibility,” Mohr said.
