Torrential monsoon rains swamped the banks of Pakistan’s Indus River and other rivers, killing at least 1,600 people and disrupting the lives of millions of farmers who have lost crops, livestock and stored grain to the worst flooding in decades.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates 1.9 million acres of standing crops are under water. Other groups say the number is higher. Losses on the drowned crops are estimated at between 70 and 100 percent.
Crops washed away include corn, rice, vegetables, fruit orchards, sugarcane and cotton.
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Winter crops such as canola, barley and wheat were harvested prior to the flooding but an estimated 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes of on-farm wheat stocks were damaged or destroyed.
There is little doubt that Pakistan’s government will revisit its previously announced plans to export two million tonnes of this year’s 22.6 million tonne wheat crop.
“The chances of exports from Pakistan this year are probably very minimal,” said Bruce Burnett, director of weather and market analysis with the Canadian Wheat Board.
The United States Department of Agriculture pegged Pakistan’s ending wheat stocks at 2.4 million tonnes, so losing 600,000 tonnes of that would be a big blow.
Jerry Norton, grains analyst with the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board, said there are rumours that Pakistan’s government has been holding back significant supplies of unreported wheat stocks, which would soften the blow.
The USDA is forecasting 300,000 tonnes of exports in 2010-11, unchanged from its July estimate.
Pakistan’s misfortune means one less potential competitor for Canadian wheat in a year in which wheat production in the former Soviet Union countries was slashed due to drought.
“We’ve already lost about as much crop in that area as Pakistan grows,” said Norton.
Pakistan produces a type of wheat similar to Russia’s winter wheat and the soft red wheat grown in the United States.
Burnett doubts Pakistan’s looming food shortage will create much commercial import demand for wheat because wheat prices are too high and Pakistan will likely look to bring in rice to replace the lost production from its submerged paddies. But there is potential for wheat to be included in food aid shipments.
The FAO says the fall wheat crop is at risk in a region that is the breadbasket of Pakistan. The loss of stored seeds could prove devastating for the world’s sixth largest wheat producer.
“If the wheat cultivation season is missed, planting cannot take place again until March-April 2011, creating a severe threat to food security at both household and national levels,” said the FAO.
Norton said there is still time for land to dry out before seeding in September and October.
“I would assume that unless this (weather) pattern persists, there’s not going to be a significant impact on next year’s crop,” he said.
Problems in Pakistan
•FAO estimates 55,000 livestock died in the floods. The animals are not only a source of food and power, they often represent a family’s entire life savings.
•An estimated 60 to 100 percent of agricultural infrastructure in the flooded area has been damaged, including irrigation equipment and water mills.
•The World Bank estimates $1 billion worth of crops have been destroyed.
