Faltering dry bean crops in Canada and the United States could lead to surging prices for the commodity in the coming months.
“There is definitely some (upside) potential for movement depending on what happens this fall,” said Ivan Sabourin, president of Roy Legumex Inc., one of the country’s largest bean processors.
He said Manitoba’s crop could best be described as small and late.
“The potential for a large crop I think is beyond us,” said Sabourin. “The critical issue is when is that frost going to come. We need a full September to get this crop in.”
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If the bean-growing area of the province escapes frost until October, there is a chance growers could still manage an average crop. But any below zero temperatures in August or September will set back yield and quality.
Growing conditions are no better south of the border where the lateness of the crop is even more of a concern.
“From what I’ve heard, I think the crop may be worse than ours,” said Sabourin.
The U.S. Dry Bean Council said acres are down significantly despite a United States Department of Agriculture report claiming growers planted 1.46 million acres of the crop, which is about the same size as 2008 plantings.
Regardless of which estimate is used, North Dakota and Michigan usually account for half of U.S. bean plantings and growing conditions have been less than ideal in those two states.
As of Aug. 2, 53 percent of North Dakota’s bean crop was rated good to excellent compared to 65 percent the same time last year.
The situation is worse in Michigan, where 44 percent of the crop made the top two categories compared to 61 percent in 2008.
Cool weather has resulted in a tardy and uneven crop that could pose problems come harvest.
“It’s not going to be the premium crop that we usually see,” said Bob Green, executive director of the Michigan Bean Commission.
In addition to stunted growth, delayed maturity and the potential for frost damage, another factor “keeping everybody on their toes” is the small carryover supplies for most bean varieties, said Sabourin.
There was essentially zero carryover of pintos heading into the 2009-10 crop year and there are fewer North American acres of that type of bean than there was last year.
Carryout of navy beans is unknown but new crop acreage is down substantially. Sabourin estimated 90,000 acres of navies were planted in Canada, which is a lot more than Statistics Canada’s June estimate of 65,000 acres but still 33 percent smaller than last year’s crop.
“This one could be very dangerous,” he said.
As a result of the uncertainty surrounding this year’s harvest, there is little action in bean markets these days.
Sabourin said a common price for pintos, navies and blacks these days is around 30 cents per pound but there is little liquidity in the markets. Prices haven’t risen in Canada in part due to the offsetting effect of the changing exchange rate.
