A new International Energy Agency report says governments need to understand that grain ethanol’s contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions is continually improving.
Corn ethanol’s reductions over gasoline are projected to double between 1995 and 2015. They were 26 percent lower in 1995, had improved to 39 percent by 2005 and are expected to reach 55 percent by 2015.
The energy balance is also steadily improving. In 2005, one unit of energy used to produce corn ethanol returned 1.42 units of usable energy, according to the IEA. By 2015 it is expected to return 1.93 units, a 55 percent increase in 10 years.
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While the report focused on corn ethanol, it also concluded that the same trend would be found in other feedstocks such as sugar cane, wheat and sugar beets.
Despite improving returns, governments continue to make energy policy decisions based on data that in some cases is 30 years old, said report author Don O’Connor, president of (S&T)2 Consultants Inc. in Delta, B.C.
“In California’s case they have written off corn ethanol as not being able to provide greenhouse gas benefits for them and it’s because they are using old data,” he said.
It is important to set the record straight before other governments make the same mistake, he added. Improvements in feedstock production and ethanol processing efficiencies have not been accurately factored into ethanol’s lifecycle analyses.
He said California, Ontario and British Columbia are pursuing low carbon fuel standard regulations, and the modelling for that needs to incorporate up-to-date numbers for ethanol’s contributions to gas emissions.
“Policy development based solely on historical data, without considering future developments, is a flawed approach and could lead to the rejection of some options that could eventually be very attractive options for greenhouse gas emission reductions,” the IEA report said.
If the report’s projection of a 55 percent greenhouse gas reduction for corn ethanol by 2015 is correct, it will rival the benefits offered by much-lauded cellulose ethanol.
O’Connor said current estimates for cellulose ethanol range from a 70 to 90 percent decrease in greenhouse gases, but those numbers are suspect.
Almost all of the studies have ignored significant inputs such as emissions associated with the manufacturing of the enzymes used in processing cellulosic material.
He said greenhouse gas reductions are not about what’s done but how it’s done. For instance, grain ethanol’s numbers can be vastly improved by burning biomass for its energy source rather than using fossil fuels.
O’Connor said he is not suggesting governments put the brakes on efforts to develop second-generation biofuel, but they need to realize it might be possible to achieve similar greenhouse gas emission benefits from first generation processes at a lower cost and in a shorter time frame.
“The two pathways are a lot closer than people think they are,” he said.
O’Connor commended the federal government for supporting the development of the GHGenius life cycle analysis model that he used in the IEA report. He said Ottawa is using more up-to-date and accurate numbers than many other governments.
