If Canadian pigs are hit with duties at the border, the Canadian industry will be hurt, but it probably won’t affect U.S. pork prices, says a leading analyst.
“Don’t look for a big market effect” in the United States, said Ron Plain of the University of Missouri.
American trade authorities are looking into Canadian hog imports because of a complaint lodged by the U.S. National Pork Producers Council, an industry lobby group.
If the U.S. study leads to tariffs or duties, they would affect only live hogs. Plain thinks market forces would simply change what the U.S. imports, shifting from live animals to pork. The U.S. market would probably see no decline in the amount of pig meat, live or dead, in the market.
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“Virtually every hog that comes south would be replaced with an increase in demand for pork (imports),” said Plain.
Pork from Canada or overseas would probably fill the hole left by Canadian hogs.
Plain thinks the NPPC action focuses on live pig imports because it is an easy target.
“Past experience has shown that it’s a lot easier bringing these charges against live hogs than pork,” said Plain.
He said U.S. producers recently faced a similar trade complaint from Mexico.
