War-torn country's farmers are now expected to produce 19.8 million tonnes of wheat and 4.95 million tonnes of barley
SASKATOON — Ukraine’s wheat and barley production is bigger than earlier anticipated.
In July, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) issued a forecast calling for 71.8 million tonnes of total grain, oilseed and pulse production in 2024-25.
Related stories:
That would be a huge drop from the 82.8 million tonnes harvested last year.
Read Also
Manitoba beekeepers battle for survival
Honeybee colony losses have hit 43 per cent, making 2025 the latest in a string of poor bee survival years for Manitoba’s honey producers
That forecast included an estimate of 19.8 million tonnes of wheat production and 4.95 million tonnes of barley.
However, farmers in the war-torn country managed to harvest 21.9 million tonnes of wheat and 5.48 million tonnes of barley, according to the UGA’s latest estimate.
Those numbers are nearly identical to last year’s totals of 22 and 5.8 million tonnes.
“They were probably overly pessimistic earlier on because of the dryness,” said MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett.
“But both the wheat and barley appeared to pull through fairly decently for them.”
The wheat and barley harvests are complete, but the corn harvest has just begun with 1.1 million tonnes in the bin.
Farmers produced 29.6 million tonnes of the crop last year and exported 29.3 million tonnes.
UGA is forecasting a 30 per cent drop in Ukraine’s corn exports in 2024-25 due to lower production and low carryover from the previous year.
On the export side of things, UGA was forecasting 41 million tonnes of total crop exports for 2024-25, way below the 57.5 million tonnes shipped out last year.
However, the numbers for the first two months of the new crop year show Ukraine is exporting more than it did during the corresponding period a year ago.
The most recent data available is for August. The country shipped out 4.76 million tonnes of crops that month compared to 3.71 million tonnes a year ago.
The biggest improvements were in wheat, barley and canola.
Wheat exports for the month were 2.24 million tonnes, up from 1.22 million tonnes a year ago.
Barley shipments were 469,000 tonnes compared to 147,000.
August exports of canola were 794,000 tonnes, up from 670,000 a year ago. However, the canola crop is smaller at 3.42 million tonnes compared to 4.5 million last year.
Burnett said Ukraine’s canola poses the biggest direct competitive threat to Canadian growers.
However, Canada’s November canola futures have been trending down, hitting a new contract low on Sept. 12.
“We’re pricing it rather cheaply,” he said.
“We’re going to be competitive with Ukraine.”
Peas are another crop where the two countries go head to head. Ukraine harvested 461,600 tonnes of the pulse this year.
Ukraine’s wheat is much lower quality than Canada’s and its wheat and barley are sold in different markets.
However, its wheat could help weigh down global prices if enough hits the market.
Ukraine’s exporters have been having an easier time getting product to customers of late.
In August, the country shipped 3.65 million tonnes, or 78 per cent of that month’s export volumes, via its Odesa ports compared to zero the previous year.
Shipments by all other modes of transport were way down. The biggest drop was in exports through the Danube River ports, which fell to 465,000 tonnes compared to 2.39 million tonnes last August.
“That provides all sorts of positives for their export program,” said Burnett, because the Danube ports are smaller and more congested than Odesa’s ports.
He believes the switch back to more traditional logistics will support the country’s exports in 2024-25.
“Smaller European production helps Ukraine out as well,” said Burnett.
Strategie Grains recently cut its estimate for the European Union wheat crop to 114.4 million tonnes, the smallest crop in 12 years.
He agrees with UGA that Ukraine’s corn exports will be way down because this year’s drought was centred in the corn-growing regions of the country.
Spain was the top importer of Ukrainian wheat in 2023-24, buying 5.9 of the 18.4 million tonnes exported in 2023-24. Egypt and Indonesia rounded out the top three.
China was its top barley market followed by Spain and Cyprus.
Germany was the largest canola customer, purchasing 1.23 million tonnes of the 3.7 million tonnes shipped. Romania took second place and the Netherlands third spot.
Contact sean.pratt@producer.com
