SAO PAULO, Brazil (Reuters) — The area planted with soybeans in Brazil in 2024-25 will grow at its slowest pace in almost two decades, says agribusiness consultancy AgRural, forecasting a modest 0.9 per cent expansion when compared with the previous season.
Farmers in the South American country, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, are set to start seeding their 2024-25 crop this month, although bad weather is seen delaying some work in the fields.
AgRural expects Brazil’s soybean area to reach 114.7 million acres in 2024-25, which, based on figures provided by national crop agency Conab, would mark the worst year-on-year performance since 2006-07, when there was a drop from 2005-06.
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“Prices are not encouraging a greater area increase,” AgRural analyst Daniele Siqueira said as benchmark soybean futures in Chicago hover around four-year lows on expectations of a bumper U.S. crop.
Siqueira noted the figures were still preliminary becaue dry weather in the main producing areas should hold off an early start to planting in September. AgRural will review its estimate in the second half of the month.
The consultancy believes that Brazil’s soybean production could reach 168 million tonnes in 2024-25, up 14 per cent on a yearly basis because adverse weather last season affected output in major grain-producing states such as Mato Grosso and Parana.
Another consultancy, Patria AgroNegocios, also forecast that Brazil’s soybean area will reach 115 million acres in the new season, but it sees a slightly higher percentage increase as its estimate for 2023-24 sat at 113 million acres.
The 1.66 per cent growth projected by Patria would be driven by Brazil’s northern and northeastern regions, while in southern and southeastern states, where most of the local grain output is concentrated, the expansion would be limited.
Patria sees Brazil’s soybean output potentially reaching 166.72 million tonnes in 2024-25, up 15.5 per cent from the previous season.
