Long lines of trucks may form at fertilizer dealers this spring, but there should be enough nutrients to go around.
After the lightest fall demand for fertilizer in three years, dealers and manufacturers say they expect a busy spring.
“Farmers didn’t put as much fertilizer in the ground or in their bins as in previous years,” said Brian Kenyon, manager of fertilizer marketing at United Grain Growers.
He said the grain company made fewer fall sales for several reasons. A poor farm economy, uncertainty in government programs and weather conditions interfered with farmers’ usual fall applications. Many areas had large crops and this resulted in tight on-farm storage as grain bins remained full through the fall. Poor prices also meant fewer producers were buying fertilizer to defer tax obligations as their net incomes fell.
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Gord Charlebois, of Westco Fertilizer in Calgary, said the dry conditions of western Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta made it difficult to apply anhydrous ammonia.
“The ground wouldn’t close up after the applicators and in some cases the ground was just too hard … sales of NH3 across the rest of the Prairies were strong though,” he said.
Rigas Karamanos, also of Westco, said farmers should monitor local supplies as seeding dates approach. He said there probably will be good supplies in general, but local conditions may vary.
“Farmers may know they need it,” said Karamanos. “Their soil test may show they need it, especially where they had high production or it was very wet last year, but if they have to drive 300 kilometres to get it, then it could mean putting less of it in the ground.”
Kenyon said demand is expected to be strong in coming months as producers make spring cropping plans and begin buying their seeding supplies.
“We don’t expect seeded acreage to go down significantly (in Western Canada) despite difficult times in the marketplace,” he said.
Fertilizer dealers in southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan say the loss of last year’s sales will be recovered, at least in part, through reduced summerfallow in the areas that were flooded last year. They expect most of this land to be fully cropped in 2000.
“There were some very large crops last season. A lot of nutrients were used up in the soil and they must be replaced,” said Karamanos.
Richard Downey, of Agrium in
Alberta, said his company expects demand to be slightly lower than average this spring.
A reduction in canola plantings will contribute to lower demand for nitrogen and sulfur, and may free up some supplies, said dealers. This may also keep local prices down, but the overall price for nitrogen appears to be rising as spring approaches.
Downey said international supplies have been volatile recently and prices at the United States’ Gulf of Mexico ports have risen $25 per tonne.
“Supplies are beginning to tighten up, especially in the U.S. corn belt where farmers, like their Canadian counterparts, have been waiting to make spring planting decisions. They may have supply problems down there, but it is unlikely we’ll see those troubles in Western Canada,” said Downey.
“If I were a farmer looking at my spring plans, I would at least buy some of my basic fertilizer requirements now. Even if I can get it come seeding time, I may not want to be in the lineup for all fertilizer,” said Kenyon.
He said if shortages do occur, he expects them to be in phosphates.
