Environment Canada says the prairie region will experience average temperatures and below normal precipitation levels this summer.
Temperatures should be within 0.5 C of normal for the season and precipitation should be at least 20 to 40 millimetres below normal summer values.
But don’t put too much faith in this forecast. Even the guys who prepared it don’t buy it.
“Certainly I don’t think that there’s a high enough accuracy with these long range forecasts to really take it to the bank,” said Saskat-chewan forecaster Bob Cormier.
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“It’s a bit of a crapshoot,” concurs Manitoba expert Jay Anderson.
Southern Alberta’s weather guy takes it one step further:
“They aren’t very accurate at all. I wouldn’t bet the family farm on it.”
Which begs the question: Why continue with this exercise in futility?
The simplest and most probable explanation is that people want long-range forecasts, especially for the summer months. They want to know what’s in store for them even if it’s
unreliable.
Temperature forecasts tend to be more accurate than precipitation forecasts. And the chance of getting both forecasts right increases in years where significant weather events like El Nino and La Nina are strong.
This summer Canada is at the tail end of La Nina, which has all but petered out.
If most long-range forecasts are risky, the one for this summer is a coin toss.
But for those who like to pretend, here’s what to take from it:
“There may be some moisture deficit problems,” said Cormier.
Vague and indefinite
The prairie grainbelt averages between 160 and 170 mm of rain during June, July and August. Take about 20 mm off those numbers for this year.
Cormier cautions that this forecast is for a three-month period. All the rain could come in one month, leaving the other two months bone-dry. Or it could be delivered in one area because prairie moisture usually comes in the form of isolated showers or thunderstorms.
He said farmers should take comfort in the forecast for near-normal temperatures. A combination of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation would be bad news.
But before doing anything drastic based on predictions for an arid summer, keep this in mind: Environment Canada’s long range forecast for the spring called for above normal moisture levels for most of the Prairies except southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba, which would receive below normal rainfall.
The real spring precipitation map doesn’t look much like the forecast. Instead of a bunch of slanty lines and horizontal lines (representing above and below normal conditions) the map is predominately white, which indicates near normal conditions.
Go figure.
