CHICAGO (Reuters) — A cold spell arriving in the U.S. Midwest this week will probably stall the emergence and growth of late-planted soft red winter wheat, a meteorologist said on Tuesday.
Temperatures are expected to fall to -9 to -7 Celsius this week in Missouri and Illinois, the two states where winter wheat seeding and emergence are furthest behind.
“The majority of the (forecasting) models are keeping things cold enough over the next two weeks that it really hampers germination for winter wheat,” said meteorologist David Streit of Commodity Weather Group.
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“It’s not an outright winterkill situation; it’s just going to hamper getting the crop up,” said Streit.
If wheat is poorly established ahead of its winter dormancy, it depends more on favorable weather in the spring.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said 52 percent of the Illinois wheat crop had emerged by Sunday, lagging the five-year average of 74 percent. Planting in Illinois was 84 percent complete.
Colder temperatures are forecast in the central Plains, with lows dropping below -18 C. But winter wheat there is further along, and any damage should be limited to the relatively minor crop areas of the Nebraska panhandle and northeastern Colorado.
The coldest air will not arrive for another day or two, giving the Plains wheat time to acclimate, said Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc.
“There is a bit of warmth in the soil still,” Lerner added, “and that will help to keep the crown of the plant just a little bit warmer.”
The U.S. Agriculture Department said all of Nebraska’s winter wheat had emerged, while in Kansas, the top U.S. winter wheat producer, the crop was 88 percent emerged.
Farmers in the Plains grow hard red winter wheat, which is used for bread and typically accounts for 35 percent to 40 percent of all U.S. wheat production. The Midwest grows soft red winter wheat, which is used in cookies and snack foods and represents 20 percent to 25 percent of the wheat crop.
