The absence of something going really wrong in Ukraine sent grain prices lower Monday, but oilseed markets largely ignored the Crimean crisis.
“It’s pretty much all Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine,” said Ken Ball, a broker with P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.
“The grains are still spinning off the Ukraine situation.”
Monday spring wheat futures fell about nine cents per bushel, hard red winter wheat fell seven to eight cents and soft red winter fell 12 cents.
Canola and soybeans both rose a few cents per bushel.
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Ball said the Crimean crisis drove wheat prices high in recent days, with the market worrying about Black Sea tensions causing interruptions in grain markets, but the lack of violence after the Crimean independence/annexation vote relieved some of the worry built-into grains prices.
Oilseeds like canola and soybeans are much less affected by Black Sea supplies, so there wasn’t much reason to move.
Relief over the relatively peaceful Crimean vote allowed world stock markets to turn to other matters and leap higher with positive factory order news for February igniting a nearly 200 point rally of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
While canola prices rose only $2.10 per tonne and $2.20 per tonne on the May and July contracts, they maintained their recent heady gains, which have closed much of the value gap between canola and soybeans.
For most of the winter, canola has been heavily discounted compared to soybeans, with $160 per tonne lost, but in recent days $40 of that gap has been closed.
Ball said the manic buying of canola futures is being driven by speculative investment funds. Some is likely short-covering, but much of it is likely inspired by the feeling that the canola-soybeans spread got too wide and needed to be narrowed.
Oat futures had another jolting day Monday, rising 13 cents per bushel for the May contract and nine for July, but prairie cash oat prices have a poor correlation to oat futures because of horrific logistics problems.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2014 463.20 +2.10 +0.46%
Canola Jul 2014 472.30 +2.20 +0.47%
Canola Nov 2014 488.60 +1.90 +0.39%
Canola Jan 2015 495.60 +2.00 +0.41%
Canola Mar 2015 502.60 +2.30 +0.46%
Milling Wheat May 2014 214.00 -8.00 -3.60%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 211.00 -8.00 -3.65%
Milling Wheat Oct 2014 212.00 -7.00 -3.20%
Durum Wheat May 2014 250.00 +1.00 +0.40%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2014 252.00 +2.00 +0.80%
Barley May 2014 130.50 +2.00 +1.56%
Barley Jul 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2014 1391.75 +3.25 +0.23%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1375.25 +3.5 +0.26%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1336.5 +3.25 +0.24%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1234.5 +2.25 +0.18%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1175.75 +1.25 +0.11%
Soybeans Jan 2015 1179.75 +1.5 +0.13%
Soybean Meal May 2014 446.6 +2.6 +0.59%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 434.6 +3.2 +0.74%
Soybean Meal Aug 2014 417.4 +2.6 +0.63%
Soybean Oil May 2014 41.89 -0.4 -0.95%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 42.03 -0.38 -0.90%
Soybean Oil Aug 2014 41.91 -0.35 -0.83%
Corn May 2014 479 -7 -1.44%
Corn Jul 2014 484 -6.5 -1.33%
Corn Sep 2014 482.5 -6 -1.23%
Corn Dec 2014 482 -5.25 -1.08%
Corn Mar 2015 490.25 -5 -1.01%
Oats May 2014 457.5 +13.75 +3.10%
Oats Jul 2014 393.25 +9 +2.34%
Oats Sep 2014 344.25 +5.75 +1.70%
Oats Dec 2014 333.75 +5.25 +1.60%
Oats Mar 2015 328 +5 +1.55%
Wheat May 2014 674.5 -12.75 -1.86%
Wheat Jul 2014 678.25 -12 -1.74%
Wheat Sep 2014 686.25 -12 -1.72%
Wheat Mar 2015 701.5 -11.25 -1.58%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2014 724.25 -9.75 -1.33%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 717.5 -9.5 -1.31%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 715.75 -9.25 -1.28%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 724 -9.25 -1.26%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 729 -9.5 -1.29%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 743.5 -8 -1.06%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 738.5 -7.25 -0.97%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 742.5 -8 -1.07%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 752 -8 -1.05%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2015 753.75 -8.5 -1.12%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 81 cents at $98.08 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.48 cents US, up from 90.20 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1052 Cdn.
