Canola futures settled lower Thursday after moving higher late in the morning on support from a weaker Canadian dollar.
Overall, there wasn’t a strong trend in the market and there was little new production news.
Generally, canola is sandwiched between supportive and negative pressures.
It is pressured lower by the start of harvest in Western Canada and expectations of good yields as well as big rapeseed crops in Europe and the former Soviet Union.
Support is coming from the hot, dry weather in the U.S. Midwest, which is stressing soybeans as they set their pods.
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The loonie weakened as the U.S. buck climbed. A report showed the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter and that supported the greenback. Also, a potential military strike against Syria appeared to be delayed for now.
• A forecast for cooler weather next week for parts of the Midwest weakened soybeans late in the trading day. However the U.S. weather service forecast shows dry weather over the Midwest in the next six to 10 days.
• The CWB updated its Pool Return Outlooks for its various offerings. It was a quick change from the PRO released just a couple of weeks ago, but the market has changed significantly from early August.
In the early delivery option No. 1 13.5 protein CWRS rose $4 to $297 per tonne at port.
The same grain in the annual pool rose $6 to $299.
Early delivery pool No. 1 durum 12.5 percent protein fell $5 to $325. The same grain in the annual pool fell $2 to 323.
Early and annual malting barley select two-row were unchanged at $300.
The early delivery No. 1 canola PRO rose $31 to $576 per tonne while the annual pool rose $33 to $583.
Early delivery No. 2 yellow peas fell $20 to $310 per tonne.
• Saskatchewan Agriculture’s weekly crop report said five percent of the crop had been harvested, down from the five-year average of 15 percent combined and 22 percent swathed or ready to straight cut.
Provincially, 34 percent of peas, 20 percent of lentils, 27 percent of winter wheat and 10 percent of mustard have been combined. Twenty-six percent of canola has been swathed.
Spring cereals are maturing and in some areas producers have started swathing or are ready to straight cut the crops.
The report said canola yields were ranging from 30 bu. per acre in the southwest and northeast to 36 bu. in the Northwest
• A few weeks ago forecasters were trimming their estimates of the size of the Russian wheat crop with some eyeing a number below 50 million tonnes.
But now, as a good percentage of the crop has been harvested, SovEcon has lifted its outlook to 51.7 million from the previous estimate of 50.5 million, Reuters reported.
However, the harvest in Siberia has yet to come in and so production risk remains.
USDA’s forecast for the Russian crop is 54 million tonnes, up from last year’s drought reduced crop of 37.7 million
SovEcon expects total wheat supply this year to rise to 57 million tonnes, up from last year’s 50 million when bad weather shrank the crop.
SovEcon pegged the exportable surplus unchanged at 14.5 million. USDA forecasts 17 million, up from 11.3 million in 2012-13Saskatchewan.
SovEcon expects 2013-14 year end stocks to edge up to 6.5 million tonnes, up from 4.6 million at the end of 2012-13
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 526.10 -1.30 -0.25%
Canola Jan 2014 532.10 -1.50 -0.28%
Canola Mar 2014 537.00 -2.10 -0.39%
Canola May 2014 541.00 -2.40 -0.44%
Canola Jul 2014 543.80 -2.60 -0.48%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 255.00 -3.00 -1.16%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 260.00 -3.00 -1.14%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 266.00 -2.00 -0.75%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 284.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 286.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 293.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 189.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 194.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2013 1430 -3 -0.21%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1368.5 -4.25 -0.31%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1364.75 -3.75 -0.27%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1338.75 -7.25 -0.54%
Soybeans May 2014 1309 -10.5 -0.80%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1303.75 -6.5 -0.50%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 467.4 +4.1 +0.88%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013 433.9 +1.7 +0.39%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 430.1 +0.8 +0.19%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 43.78 -0.53 -1.20%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013 43.9 -0.55 -1.24%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 44.2 -0.58 -1.30%
Corn Sep 2013 497.25 -7 -1.39%
Corn Dec 2013 481.5 +0.75 +0.16%
Corn Mar 2014 494.25 +0.75 +0.15%
Corn May 2014 502 +1 +0.20%
Corn Jul 2014 507.5 +0.75 +0.15%
Oats Sep 2013 394.75 +19 +5.06%
Oats Dec 2013 347.5 -1 -0.29%
Oats Mar 2014 348.75 -4.25 -1.20%
Oats May 2014 350.25 -5.5 -1.55%
Oats Jul 2014 341.25 -5.5 -1.59%
Wheat Sep 2013 641.25 -5.25 -0.81%
Wheat Dec 2013 654.25 -5.25 -0.80%
Wheat Mar 2014 665.75 -5.75 -0.86%
Wheat May 2014 673 -5.75 -0.85%
Wheat Jul 2014 666.25 -6.25 -0.93%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 724.25 -10 -1.36%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 733 -7.5 -1.01%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 744.25 -7 -0.93%
Spring Wheat May 2014 753.25 -4.25 -0.56%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 758.75 -5.75 -0.75%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 701 -5.25 -0.74%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 703.25 -7 -0.99%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 710.75 -7 -0.98%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 715.25 -7.25 -1.00%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 704.5 -8.75 -1.23%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.30 at $108.80 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 95.00 cents US, down from 95.33 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0526 Cdn.
The TSX composite was supported by strong financial company quarterly profit reports.
In early tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 97.51 points, or 0.77 percent, at 12,704.73.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 16.05 points, or 0.11 percent, to close at 14,840.56.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 3.23 points, or 0.20 percent, at 1,638.19.
The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 26.95 points, or 0.75 percent, at 3,620.3.
