HAMBURG, July 2 (Reuters and Saskatoon newsroom) – China is set to increase its oilseed imports in the coming year as poor harvests cut its domestic supplies and economic growth continues to drive up demand, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
“We forecast Chinese oilseed production in the 2013/14 season at a multi-year low of around 48 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from a year earlier and down 3.8 million tonnes from two years earlier,” Oil World said.
“This, along with the comparatively low Chinese soybean stocks at the start of the new season, will result in a pronounced increase of total Chinese oilseed imports in August 2013/July 2014.”
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China, the world’s largest soybean importer, already is likely to have imported more soybeans in June 2013, after a fall in its May imports to 5.09 million tonnes from 5.2 million tonnes in May 2012, Oil World said.
Oil World estimates China imported at least 8.0 million tonnes of soybeans in June, well above the 5.6 million imported in June 2012.
The news from Oil World reinforces the United States Department of Agriculture’s forecasts for increased Chinese oilseed imports.
The USDA numbers have met some scepticism because of the bird flu problem in China which has forced culling of poultry flocks, an important demand source for oilseed meal.
A Bloomberg story quoting the same Oil World report says China’s purchases of rapeseed from January through May were a record 1.66 million tonnes. The country’s crop this year may be below 11.5 million tons, declining for a fourth straight season, it said. That is well below the USDA’s forecast of a 13 million tonne crop.
