Farmers still have a chance to get a good oat crop this summer, regardless of the late seeding date.
However, oat stocks are tight and late seeding could affect yields, which means the new crop supply and demand situation will be much tougher to gauge than likely acreage, says Randy Strychar of OatInsight.com.
“Anytime you seed in mid-May, you can expect declines in yields,” said Strychar.
“You start seeing a decline in yields from the first week of April forward.”
Much attention is being paid to farmers’ seeding intentions this year because of the low oat stocks.
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Many market analysts say Statistics Canada’s March seeding intentions report is likely to be inaccurate about many crops, but Strychar thinks that won’t be true of oats because of late seeding. He expects actual seeding to be within one or two percent of Statistics Canada’s estimate of 3.4 million acres, or an 18.4 percent increase.
Oats is traditionally the last crop seeded and is considered to be the safest crop to seed late. Dedicated oat growers have shied away from late seeding in recent years because quality is king in selling to the milling oats market. However, late seeding means many farmers may still trust oats to go in late and give them a decent crop.
“I’ve seen years where we’ve pushed the crop in on June 15 and we’ve still gotten above average yields,” said Strychar.
Most analysts expect farmers to seed canola first, because that’s the best-returning crop.
“They’re going to try to ram in canola if they can,” said Strychar.
“They’ve proven they will risk the yield decline because the returns are so much better.”
Farmers have other decisions to make this year as well.
Acreage decisions are expected to be fluid in Manitoba’s Red River Valley until crops actually go in the ground. The big returns of corn and soybeans are offset by the risk of frost. Many farmers, advisers, grain companies and traders are now debating whether those corn and soybean acres will go to canola, oats or wheat.
Strychar said oat returns are better than wheat returns, so farmers will probably stick with the plans they revealed to Statistics Canada.
Even though oats might stick to a narrow band of acreage around the Statistics Canada number, a one or two percent deviation could significantly affect the supply and demand balance, with each percentage point equalling 25,000 tonnes. With little in stock, the market starts to get twitchy.
“That could mean a lot,” said Strychar.
