USDA forecasts mostly fall, but market doesn’t rise much

Canola fell on news that American soybeans are in ample supply and Brazil’s crop still looms large. The USDA supply and demand report for March told a tale the market was mostly ready for.

Corn was the winner for the day, with nearby futures prices on Chicago rising to match the high-point for the year, last July. May’s CBOT corn contract finished the day, March 9, up U.S. 7 cents to settle at U.S.$3.93 per bushel.

But wheat failed to jump on the cereal bandwagon, with global and American supplies still too high and corn still being relatively low.

USDA put American corn ending stocks at 2.13 billion bushels, down from 2.35 billion last month and that is what put some tiger in the tank. It was added ethanol distilling that helped pull the corn inventory down, along with brisk export sales.

Soybeans supplies from South America were mixed, with USDA’s WASDE report showing the heat and drought in Argentina hurting the dropping production by an estimate 7 million tonnes. That country’s corn crop is also expected to yield less as a result, putting up 3 million tonnes less than last season.

Brazil remains the spoiler when it comes to global price and supply, with USDA projecting that crop to rise by 1 million tonnes and its exports to be another half million on top of that.

Soybeans first fell back and then recovered on the CBOT March contract, coming in a penny higher than the day started.

Canola is off its recent highs, having been on a good uphill run for more than a month, it finished Winnipeg at the end of last week at $530.50. This morning, ahead of the USDA report, it tumbled to $521.50 before recovering to $522.20.

USDA boosted its U.S. corn export forecast for the current season

by 175 million bushels to 2.25 billion. And pushed its projected corn flowing into ethanol to 5.58 billion bushels from 5.53.

American soybean ending stocks are estimated to be up 25 million bushels from last month’s forecast, to 555 million.

Wheat inventories in the U.S. rose to 1.034 billion from 1.009 while the USDA projected slightly smaller exports due to high domestic prices and a relatively strong Greenback.

American analysts are suggesting the corn rally might not last and weather will remain control of prices.

Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr said after the monthly report that it did contain a few small surprises.

“USDA’s reduction of corn carryout was more than I expected, though the agency’s forecasts of exports and usage are in line with my own,” Knorr said.

“I didn’t expect such a large reduction this quickly, because feed usage is still a question mark. Higher prices could trim corn usage in rations, especially with more sorghum likely available. But feed usage changes won’t be worked into the supply and demand table until April, following release of quarterly grain stocks March 30,” he said in a Farm Futures report March 8.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.03 at US$60.12 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US77.54 cents, down from 77.54 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2897.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.
Canola Mar 18 516.20s -0.40 -0.08%
Canola May 18 521.80s -0.40 -0.08%
Canola Jul 18 526.20s -0.40 -0.08%
Canola Nov 18 513.20s -0.80 -0.16%
Canola Jan 19 517.50s -0.40 -0.08%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

Soybeans Mar 18 1053-6s -1-2 -0.12%
Soybeans May 18 1064-0s -1-2 -0.12%
Soybeans Jul 18 1073-0s -1-0 -0.09%
Soybeans Aug 18 1073-4s +0-2 +0.02%
Soybeans Sep 18 1057-2s +1-4 +0.14%

Soybean Meal Mar 18 380.6s +0.4 +0.11%
Soybean Meal May 18 383.4s -0.1 -0.03%
Soybean Meal Jul 18 384.5s -0.3 -0.08%

Soybean Oil Mar 18 31.67s -0.26 -0.81%
Soybean Oil May 18 31.84s -0.26 -0.81%
Soybean Oil Jul 18 32.06s -0.25 -0.77%

Corn Mar 18 385-6s +6-4 +1.71%
Corn May 18 393-4s +6-2 +1.61%
Corn Jul 18 400-4s +6-0 +1.52%
Corn Sep 18 405-0s +5-2 +1.31%
Corn Dec 18 410-2s +4-0 +0.98%

Oats Mar 18 260-6s +1-2 +0.48%
Oats May 18 265-0s +1-0 +0.38%
Oats Jul 18 264-4s -0-4 -0.19%
Oats Sep 18 263-6s +0-4 +0.19%
Oats Dec 18 265-2s unch unch

Wheat Mar 18 494-6s +1-6 +0.35%
Wheat May 18 499-2s +2-0 +0.40%
Wheat Jul 18 515-2s +2-2 +0.44%
Wheat Sep 18 531-6s +2-6 +0.52%
Wheat Dec 18 552-0s +3-2 +0.59%

Spring Wheat Mar 18 621-6s +1-6 +0.28%
Spring Wheat May 18 624-6s +4-6 +0.77%
Spring Wheat Jul 18 632-6s +5-0 +0.80%
Spring Wheat Sep 18 638-6s +5-0 +0.79%
Spring Wheat Dec 18 646-2s +3-6 +0.58%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 519-6s -1-2 -0.24%
Hard Red Wheat May 18 533-2s -1-0 -0.19%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 550-0s -1-0 -0.18%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 566-6s -0-6 -0.13%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 585-0s -0-4 -0.09%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Apr 18 121.775s -1.200 -0.98%
Live Cattle Jun 18 113.275s -1.550 -1.35%
Live Cattle Aug 18 111.250s -1.200 -1.07%

Feeder Cattle Mar 18 141.750s -2.025 -1.41%
Feeder Cattle Apr 18 143.000s -2.375 -1.63%
Feeder Cattle May 18 144.450s -2.425 -1.65%

Lean Hogs Apr 18 68.075s +0.275 +0.41%
Lean Hogs May 18 72.350s -0.250 -0.34%
Lean Hogs Jun 18 78.250s -0.350 -0.45%


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