HAMBURG, Aug 11 (Reuters) – Rain this summer has fallen at the worst possible time for west European wheat farmers, disrupting the harvest and hitting ripe grain plants, which could sprout and lose grain quality, experts said on Thursday.
The rainfall is keeping thousands of combine harvesters idle across France, Germany and Poland.
In France, the EU’s largest wheat producer and exporter, this year’s weather-hit wheat harvest could be the worst in around 30 years with poor quality likely to reduce global sales by the EU’s largest wheat exporter.
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The final size and quality of France’s crop is still unclear as harvest progress in north France remains slow after repeated rain since July.
French analysts Strategie Grains has slashed its estimate of France’s soft wheat crop by over 6 million tonnes to 29.9 million for it what called a “disastrous” harvest.
Other estimates put the crop at 28 million to 30 million tonnes, down from a record 2015 crop of almost 41 million.
France’s problems caused Strategie Grains to cut its production estimate for the whole EU.
It cut soft wheat by 7.7 million tonnes to 137.9 million as it factored in a “disastrous” crop in France and disappointing yields in Germany and Britain.
It also lowered its outlook for this year’s EU barley to 60.6 million tonnes from 62.1 million previously and corn is also now at 60.1 million, down from 61.7 previously, although it is still larger than last year’s 57.4 million.
The durum crop was trimmed to nine million tonnes, down from 9.3 million in the July report. However, that is still up from 8.1 million tonnes last year.
Strategie Grains said that in France’s soft wheat crop there were very poor readings for specific weights, one measure of grain quality, but high protein content. Traders said wetness in the north could cause last-minute problems with Hagberg falling numbers, another quality measurement.
A third of France’s wheat area remained unharvested on Aug. 9, agricultural group InVivo said.
In Europe’s second largest producer Germany, showers fell on ripe wheat every day this week, raising fears of a last minute loss of both harvest quality and size.
German farmers expect the crop to fall 10-20 percent on last year’s 26.5 million tonnes.
“I think only about 40 percent of Germany’s crop has been harvested when previously people had hoped to be finishing by now,” a German grains analyst said.
“Wheat quality will be very different between regions and a lot more German wheat than usual will only reach animal feed standards this year.”
“Farmers can harvest very quickly and if the weather changes Germany could still get a decent crop, but rain is still forecast up to Monday-Tuesday.”
In fourth largest producer Poland, persistent rain is also delaying harvesting and only 40-45 percent of wheat has been harvested, said Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska.
“In the south of the country, farmers have managed to harvest grains with good quality parameters,” Sabaranski said. “In terms of quality there will be major regional differences recorded.”
Sparks Polska forecasts Poland’s wheat crop at 10.7 million tonnes, down 10 percent from 2015.
