Winnipeg, Dec. 1 – Increases are expected to Canada’s wheat and canola production estimates when Statistics Canada releases its latest survey data on Friday, Dec. 4.
Early summer drought stressed crops in the western Prairies, but the damage was not as bad as expected once the crop was harvested.
“It turns out that the crop didn’t suffer as much in Alberta and Saskatchewan,” said Jerry Klassen, manager of the Canadian office of Swiss-based GAP S.A. Grains and Products.
Trade estimates place canola production at anywhere from 14.5 million to 16.2 million tonnes, with most guesses coming in at around 15.5 million. That would be up from the StatsCan October estimate of 14.3 million tonnes, but still below the 16.4 million tonne crop grown in 2014-15.
Canola is “a crop that’s hard to kill nowadays,” said Neil Townsend, director of market research services at G3 (formerly CWB).
He noted canola demand from exporters and domestic crushers “does not reflect a slowdown from last year,” with the solid usage pace supporting upward revisions to the production number.
While canola production will be up from earlier estimates, supplies could still be tight by the end of the marketing year.
Canola exports and domestic use are running ahead of last year’s pace.
“The most important aspect of this report for the trade will be to fine-tune ‘when’ the easy access grain supply from farmers will deplete,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada. Production estimates may rise from earlier ideas, but year-end stocks by July 31, 2016, will still tighten. “It’s just a matter of timing and how it is accomplished.”
For wheat, pre-report trade estimates range from about 26.1 million to 27.6 million tonnes, up from the October StatsCan estimate of 26 million tonnes. Of that total, durum production is forecast at anywhere from unchanged, to up by as much as 500,000 tonnes from the 4.7 million tonnes reported in October.
The strong wheat export pace reflects a better quality Canadian crop, said Townsend. He said buyers were taking advantage for blending opportunities, and a larger spring wheat crop could increase the export program over the coming months.
Barley trade estimates range from about 7.3 million to 7.8 million tonnes, which would compare with the 7.6 million tonnes forecast in October and the year-ago level of 7.1 million.
The supply-demand fundamentals for the grain are relatively tight, said Klassen.
The following is a summary of the trade forecast and Statistics Canada crop production estimates for 2015-16.
| Mln tonnes | Trade f’cast | Oct StatCan | 2014-15 |
| All wheat | 26.1-27.6 | 26.06 | 29.42 |
| Durum | 4.7-5.2 | 4.74 | 5.19 |
| Canola | 14.5-16.2 | 14.3 | 16.41 |
| Barley | 7.3-7.8 | 7.61 | 7.12 |
| Oats | 3.1-3.4 | 3.29 | 2.98 |
| Flax | 0.85-0.95 | 0.89 | 0.87 |
