THERE is a fierce race unfolding to replace retiring Liberal leader Jean Chrétien early next year and to automatically become the 11th (or 10th, if you don’t count George Brown) Liberal leader since Confederation. The winner will become the eighth consecutive Liberal leader to be prime minister.
The race has produced half a million Canadians signed up as Liberal members – a record for a Canadian political party.
And it is a horserace as former finance minister Paul Martin, current finance minister John Manley and heritage minister Sheila Copps run for the roses. It’s too early to declare a likely winner.
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Oh, sorry. I’ve been reading too many Liberal party press releases lately.
Reality check: all of the above is true but for the part about the horserace. Barring an unfortunate bus accident or recognition by the candidate that starting a new job at age 65 is too much, Martin will win the November leadership convention.
In fact, many Canadian lobbyists already are bypassing the current regime, pinning their hopes on Martin to fulfill their dreams. Provincial premiers last week said they would look to the next prime minister for progress on stripping Ottawa of power and several weeks ago, a delegation of cattle industry leaders flew over Ottawa to Montreal to meet with Martin about the cattle industry crisis flowing from bovine spongiform encephalopathy.
So let’s make an assumption here – Paul Martin Jr. will do what daddy never could accomplish, despite two tries, and become prime minister.
All agriculture industry eyes will be on his choice as agriculture minister. It is widely assumed Lyle Vanclief will not be part of the new guard.
It is risky to speculate on possible replacements, since it is impossible to know if any high-profile agriculture industry officials will get elected in the 2004 election on Martin’s ticket.
But among the existing crop of politicians on Parliament Hill, these are some possibilities, with their handicaps:
¥ Regina MP, former agriculture minister and longtime Martin supporter Ralph Goodale. His main handicap, if that is the term, is that Goodale almost certainly is destined for a more prominent role in a Martin government, although the Don Mazankowski precedent of being agriculture minister and deputy prime minister would be one way to give the West at least the appearance of being at Ottawa’s centre.
¥ Human resources minister Jane Stewart has been a competent performer and has real farm background in the Toronto region. She has also been a Chrétien loyalist and a magnet for opposition criticism.
¥ Government house leader Don Boudria represents a rural eastern Ontario riding but his loyalty to Chrétien and his predecessor’s eastern Ontario background would work against him.
¥ Backbenchers Murray Calder, Bob Speller (both Ontario) and Mark Eyking (a farmer who would be the first Nova Scotia minister) are Martin supporters who fancy they have a shot at it.
¥ Alberta senator Dan Hays, Senate speaker, would be an inspired choice. He is involved in a family ranch and would follow in the footsteps of father Harry Hays, a minister in the 1960s.
Don’t forget, Martin has a soft spot for sons following their fathers.
