There is more to the American election than the crazy Republican presidential nomination race.
At issue for Canadian agriculture is whether the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal will survive the next administration.
All 12 nations — including Canada, the United States and Japan — have signed the deal, but it now must be ratified within two years by six countries containing 85 percent of the total gross domestic product.
The agreement offers the potential for Canada to increase agricultural trade with Asian countries by several billion dollars.
Many Canadian agricultural organizations support the TPP agreement, including the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association, the Canola Council of Canada and the Canadian Meat Council. Even several supply management associations aren’t opposing it because it contains a healthy compensation package, and their loss of market share is not too harmful.
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In the U.S., Republicans normally support free trade, while Democrats back protectionist policies.
Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are both are against the TPP. Clinton, who as secretary of state supported it, now says it won’t create enough jobs, increase wages or help national security.
Sanders says the deal is “disastrous” because it would be bad for consumers and cost jobs in the U.S.
But the Republican field is all over the map. Donald Trump doesn’t support the TPP, which he has called “crazy,” telling CNN the U.S. is getting “ripped off by China, by Japan, by Mexico.”
Ted Cruz once supported passing the Trade Promotion Authority to allow the U.S. to fast-track the TPP, but then voted against it in the Senate. He now says the TPP should not be voted on during a lame-duck legislative session.
John Kasich says the TPP is “critical” to create jobs and create strategic alliances against the Chinese.
Marco Rubio, whom I believe will ultimate emerge as the nominee, even if it has to happen on the convention floor, says the TPP is a “pillar” of his foreign policy strategy to achieve strategic goals and economic prosperity at home.
We may watch the race in the U.S. with bemusement, but its outcome may have a significant impact on the prosperity of Canadian farmers.
