THINK of Gerry Ritz this week as a Don Quixote figure, astride his prairie steed in Geneva, tilting at the imaginary windmill of a World Trade Organization deal that will satisfy conflicting sectors of Canada’s farm economy while securing political support for the Conservatives from Climax, Sask., to St.-Louis-du-Ha!-Ha!, Que.
Now, imagine the federal agriculture minister with ropes attached to either arm as groups of large men in full tug-of-war regalia try to pull him off the horse in their direction.
Ritz may well drag himself back to rural Saskatchewan at the end of this week of ministerial negotiations at WTO headquarters with arms slightly longer than when he last visited the riding.
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At a July 20 reception for Canadians in Geneva for the WTO negotiations, the minister said he was there to roll up his sleeves and joked about some back alley brawling to achieve Canadian objectives.
As the week began, the brawling was as likely to be between competing Canadian interests as between Canada and the world.
Geneva is awash with Canadian lobbyists this week, all intent on making sure that he serves their conflicting interests and all given access to Ritz or his officials at the end of every day to press their point.
Exporters are convinced he cannot walk away from a deal that would give them access to more markets, even if it comes at the expense of supply management protections.
Supply management defenders insist the opposite and appear to have scored an early coup July 21 by reporting from Geneva that Ritz and trade minister Michael Fortier assured them the Canadian stance against reductions in supply management protections remains at the core of the strategy.
By week’s end, when this column makes it into readers’ hands, events in Geneva may have produced a major breakthrough and a deal on the outlines of a new trade agreement.
But it is almost impossible to imagine.
Divisions on key and politically sensitive issues that have defied political compromise for seven years still remain.
The Americans, despite all their trade liberalization bluster, have their eyes on the imminent regime change in Washington and recognize that any deal would have to be approved by a likely more-protectionist new president and Congress.
More importantly, the world also recognizes that reality and is inclined to discount the ability of America to deliver on its WTO commitments.
In fact, as the ministerial meeting opened July 21, Oxfam International published a blunt and devastating report that details the gap between U.S. rhetoric in Geneva and the contents of the recently approved 2008 farm bill.
It calls the farm bill the “unwanted guest” in WTO headquarters, a stark reminder that the U.S., like most countries, does not usually walk its WTO talk.
Brazil minister Celso Amorim injected some realism into expectations for a deal July 21 when he delivered his country’s opening salvo at the talks.
“As we can see from reading the agriculture text, we can take the conclusion that despite all the good effort, that text was built on the logic of accommodating exceptions rather than seeking ambition,” he said.
A deal based on exceptions, as unlikely as even that is, would be underwhelming indeed.
