The long-range summer forecasts are coming out, like the lilacs on the trees, but I don’t know how much faith to put in them.
Remember last winter’s forecast? It was supposed to be nasty, cold, brutish and long. It was actually fairly nice (unless you grow winter wheat), warm, dry and relatively short.
Everyone asked, how did they get it so wrong? Turns out it was largely that the unusually high jet stream fended off Arctic air flow and La Nina did not entirely do her cooling job.
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Whatever it was, pretty much all the forecasts were off by a spectacular margin.
So, here we go with summer forecasts, sprinkled liberally with salt.
Are we awaiting a hot summer? AccuWeather came out with its Canadian forecast May 14, with half of British Columbia, all three prairie provinces, most of Ontario and the north under a big above-normal umbrella.
“Based on current and past surface observations, analogs and computer model data, indications are strongest for a very warm to hot summer across the southern Prairies,” wrote forecast author Brett Anderson.
If you look at Environment Canada’s temperature anomaly outlook map, about 90 percent of the country is painted bright red, signifying above normal temperatures for June through August.
David Phillips, Environment Canada’s senior meteorologist, has been commenting on the upcoming summer weather even though the official forecast is not yet out.
“It’s almost a crapshoot, in a way,” Phillips told The Daily Brew. “I certainly wouldn’t plan an outdoor wedding based on the seasonal forecast. This is not a done deal.”
However, in late April, Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. described quite a different scenario to Western Producer reporter Sean Pratt.
“I actually did a couple of studies and they both come up with the same general solution that it will not be a hot summer. There will be a tendency for cooler than usual conditions to occur,” he said.
Lerner’s view is backed up by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Meanwhile, the Farmer’s Almanac is calling for near normal summer rainfall (as are most forecasts) with the hottest temperatures (big surprise) in early to mid July and August and late August.
So, take your pick of the forecasts. Just be sure to take it with salt.
