There could be one heck of a big crop in Western Canada this year. Railways take note.
It’s dangerous to make production predictions in the first part of June. While a lot of things could go wrong and alter the forecast, we seldom get off to such a good start. If you’re playing the odds, there are many checkmarks in the positive column.
Seeding was early in most areas, well ahead of the five-year average. Early seeded crops usually yield better, plus they are less prone to damage from an early fall frost.
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Soil moisture started the spring very short in much of Alberta and western Saskatchewan. That has seen a major reversal. Timely rain will still be needed, and some regions are sitting with less than normal precipitation, but the areas reporting short and very short soil moisture are relatively small.
On the other hand, there isn’t a large-scale flooding battle. In the past, we’ve seen millions of acres go unseeded due to wet conditions.
One of the biggest threats could be excess moisture on pulse crops, particularly lentils. With lentils seeded over an expanded region, root rots could take a toll if the weather turned abnormally wet.
Hailstorms are a constant threat, and they certainly affect crop production in specific areas. However, they don’t tend to be a big threat to overall production potential. In fact, the rainfall that accompanies a storm can be a net benefit.
Last year, prairie agriculture plucked victory from the jaws of defeat. Crops benefited much more than expected from late rain, which generated yields beyond early expectations for many producers.
We’re off to a much better start, so the early prognosis has to be a crop that’s well above average. In fact, the potential exists to produce a crop that rivals the record set back in 2013.
That caught the industry by surprise, particularly the railways, and the backlog cost producers a great deal of money.
You should never count your chicks before they hatch, and that kind of caution is valuable at the farm level. Even in years of record crops, there will be individual producers who suffer poor production.
Big production equals low prices in the minds of producers, and that’s why farmers don’t generally like to see optimistic production predictions. In fact, producers can be downright hostile to such forecasts.
However, low-balling production potential doesn’t help gear up for the logistical challenges created by a big crop. Conservative forecasts are good when a producer calculates cash flow needs and potential profitability.
Those forecasts aren’t helpful for predicting the need for hopper cars, locomotives and crews.
Of course, there’s no way to predict quality this early. Disease issues and/or wet harvest weather could mean an ugly grade distribution. However, looking only at the potential quantity, this has the makings of a big crop.
If the tap turns off and it doesn’t rain for the rest of the summer or if the tap turns on and the rain won’t stop for the rest of the summer, the outcome will be different. If conditions aren’t extreme, production could be very good. If conditions happen to remain more favourable than normal, a really big crop is in the offing.
Similar to 2013, grain carryover is going to be low, and the first couple months of the new crop year will not see big movement. That will change by October if we’re lucky enough to produce another whopper. Let’s be ready this time.
