THE bitter cold that has gripped most of the Prairies recently has made it hard to conceptualize global warming.
But most major farm meetings this winter feature speakers talking about Canada’s plans to address global warming through the Kyoto Agreement.
That’s the commitment accepted by most of the world’s developed countries to lower greenhouse gas emissions – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – by six percent below the level of 1990.
Canada’s agricultural climate change planning is now mostly focused on developing best management practices to reduce greenhouse gas production, such as reduced tillage and better livestock feeding methods.
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Unfortunately, there is less concentration on finding out what kind of climate farmers will face in the future and the changes needed to adapt to it.
That is a major failing because, while there is dispute about the costs and effectiveness of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, there is much agreement that the earth is warming faster than normal, whether due to man’s activities or to natural processes.
Even Kyoto supporters say the agreement will only slow the growth of greenhouse gas production, not stop it.
Kyoto is seen as a first step only, stimulating research, developing new fuels, technology and practices to be adopted worldwide in future global climate change programs aimed at lowering greenhouse gas production.
So no matter what we do, some level of climate change is inevitable.
A research paper prepared by the Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Directorate of Natural Resources Canada said the outlook for climate change could be good and bad for the Prairies. The frost-free season might be longer, permitting earlier seeding and harvesting before the driest part of summer, but pests might also grow faster and be more numerous.
Higher carbon dioxide levels would act like a fertilizer, making plants grow faster, but that could be offset by rising ground ozone levels. There might be more moisture, but that may be negated by warmer temperatures and increased evapotranspiration.
But all this is uncertain and our understanding of its effects on crops, pastures and livestock is incomplete at best.
Prairie farmers are innovative and can likely accommodate changes in the weather, but they would have an easier time if they knew what to expect.
And because the time line in breeding new varieties can be measured in decades, plant researchers also need more guidance so they can orient their programs to best advantage.
Governments need more specific information so they can provide more irrigation resources, if needed.
In short, greater research investment by government is needed to provide a more solid understanding of the real issues climate change will present in the future and how to adapt to them.
