Western Canada will see dramatically reduced crop production this year, and the difficult growing season will also create harvest challenges.
While a few regions still have the potential to grow an above average crop, this is no longer within reach for a large portion of the Prairies. The moisture deficit has been too great for too long.
The tap hasn’t completely turned off, but you know rainfall events have been rare when producers can quote their total rainfall to the nearest tenth of an inch. Substantial rain in the weeks ahead would certainly improve yield prospects, but no amount of moisture can erase the damage that has already been inflicted.
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Of all the major crops, canola has the greatest ability to recover from a thin stand and take advantage of late moisture, but this will take more than scattered thunder showers.
As long as they escaped major frost damage, crops seeded early typically have the best establishment. While they may be stunted and short, the yield potential is far better than fields with patchy emergence.
In many cases, showers have provided enough moisture that large bare patches are now seeing new plants filling in the rows. It’s not unusual to see fields that range in development all the way from seedling stage to flowering.
Harvest timing will be difficult. Large patches of green crop will be interspersed with crop that’s dead ripe.
Weeds will also create headaches. Early weeds growing under drought-like conditions were often hard to control. Now, with a bit of moisture, there’s a late flush of weeds, and because of crop staging, it’s often too late for herbicide.
In southern regions and especially in lentil crops, kochia will be ugly. It thrives in drought years. The kochia seed bank is going to receive a major deposit. This fall could see resurgence in the use of swathers as producers try to deal with variable crop maturity and weed issues.
Hail insurance companies have been fiercely competing for business, but many producers are likely to buy less hail coverage this year. There’s not much use putting extra hail insurance on a mediocre crop.
For the crop insurance programs in Saskatchewan and Alberta, this will likely be a year for major payouts. Staff members could face their busiest year in more than a decade.
Grain bin and grain bag sales will droop. Combine sales that were already soft are likely to become even quieter.
Many cattle producers are facing feed shortages. Pastures are parched and the hay crop will be small. The drought is likely to further delay expansion in the beef breeding herd. In fact, a significant sell-off of cows already appears to be occurring.
Expect more attractive basis levels as grain companies compete for a limited grain supply. With a much smaller crop to export, rail transportation will be under reduced scrutiny.
While grain prices will strengthen, that won’t compensate for the yield shortfall. The farm economy will not be as buoyant as in recent years. Producers will be more cautious with their expenditures.
The grain sector has come through a period of unrivalled prosperity, so most are well equipped to survive a bad year. Cow-calf producers have had less time to enjoy strong returns, so their balance sheets aren’t as healthy.
Drought-reduced production over a major portion of the Prairies was bound to happen eventually. The magnitude of the production shortfall will be determined by weather conditions in the weeks ahead.
