WESTERN Canadian farmers plan a 15 percent increase to summerfallow acres. That means about 11.6 million acres of farmland will lie fallow in this crop year.
By province, the numbers are striking: Saskatchewan farmers plan a 29 percent increase to fallow and Alberta a 25 percent increase.
In Manitoba, flooded fields last year misaligned any semblance of a pattern. Farmers there ended up with 1.6 million acres in summerfallow last year, far more than their intended 400,000, because of excess moisture. Had they followed through on their intentions last year, however, 2006 figures would represent a 75 percent increase in summerfallow acres in that province.
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Plans to idle farmland represent the reversal of a pattern that has seen the number of summerfallow acres on a downward trend. Western Canada hasn’t seen the level proposed in this coming crop year since 1999, when the total was 14.9 million acres.
The high since tracking began in 1908 was reached in 1970, at 36.9 million acres. That was the single year in which the federal government’s Lower Inventories for Tomorrow, or LIFT, program paid farmers $6 to $10 an acre not to plant wheat.
Given that soil moisture is favourable in most regions, it a safe assumption that lack of cash flow is the culprit. Few commodities pencil out to profits when input costs are calculated, and for some, the path of least loss lies in not planting a crop at all.
We must bear in mind that the figures for 2006 represent farmers’ stated intentions and history shows intentions and actual planting can differ considerably.
Even so, the figures tell us something about the level of optimism and financial liquidity in the countryside.
Do they signal that western Canadian farmers have reached a point where the attraction of seeding a crop is superseded by fears of high risk and low economic return? After years of being accused of crying wolf, has the wolf arrived at the door? The figures on summerfallow are a stark reminder of the possibilities.
There are those who will argue that an increase in summerfallow acres could help lower grain stocks, thereby sparking higher commodity prices. That might be true if prices were determined only by supply and were not affected by agricultural subsidies, trade agreements and policies in other countries. As it is, such an argument is a dangerous one on which to build cropping plans.
No, this intended increase in idled land must be noted for what it is – yet another message that farmers need better returns from the marketplace. As well, it might point to need for better provisions in future farm programs to accommodate farmers’ decisions to temporarily reduce production.
We urge provincial and federal governments to take heed when formulating future agricultural policies.
