It’s shaping up as one of those growing seasons that will be particularly notable.
As this is being written, heavy rain and high wind are forecast over a large region.
It’s already been a high rainfall year across much of the Prairie’s southern grain belt, which is a complete turnaround from the early dryness that was a big concern in western regions.
Hail insurance sales have been brisk as producers look to protect crops that have amazing growth. It can be difficult to sleep in a year with regular thunderstorms if you don’t have some hail insurance in place.
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It could also be a record year for fungicide sales.
Fungicide use has become more common on most crops, but the record acreage of high value lentils combined with wet weather has contributed to the number of applications.
How damaging will another big rainstorm be? How large will be the area affected? How much flooding of low lying areas will occur, on top of what has already been lost due to previous rainfall events? Will disease remain under control or will it become rampant?
It’s hard to know what the final story line will be.
A lot of crops were cooked by mid-July in the bad drought years of 1988 and 2002.
Drought was the prevailing feature over a large portion of the Prairies, and the only question was just how much total production would be reduced.
In 2013, Western Canada grew its largest crop ever, eclipsing previous production totals, but the true size wasn’t evident until harvest. Everyone knew it was a big crop, but early production estimates were on the conservative side.
In the end, it was a massive crop that shone a spotlight on the inadequacies in our grain transportations system.
There have also been years in recent history where the story line was excess moisture early in the growing season, resulting in millions of unseeded acres and vast areas under water. Inevitably, this leads to finger pointing over drainage issues.
Thankfully, it’s been quite a few years since the story line was an early fall frost over a broad region, but that sort of devastation is always a possibility. Frost in early September is damaging to quality. Frost in late August can cut yields as well as grades.
We’ve had years where volcanic ash reduced summer temperatures, and crops matured late. We’ve had years where high pressure systems blocked precipitation and summer temperatures soared.
There have been years with flooded land in some regions with drought elsewhere. There have been years with grasshopper plagues and other years when canola was hit with infestations of either bertha army worms or diamond back moth larvae.
Overall crop potential is excellent this year with many producers saying it is one of the best crops they’ve ever had.
Too much rain is seldom a big concern through the summertime with the exception of localized areas that get hit with a big thunderstorm. This could be the year where too much summer rain actually limits production potential.
Perhaps the frequent rainfall will stop and there will be a bountiful and high quality harvest.
Unfortunately, looking at the forecast, one can envision more flooded areas in fields, more root rot in lentils and peas, more fusarium in wheat and durum and a lot of lodged crops.
While the story line for 2016 is still a work in progress, excess summer rain could be the defining feature in many southern regions.
