About six months ago, I chatted with a fellow in Wisconsin who works in agriculture. I asked him about Donald Trump.
He replied that folks there weren’t really in favour of his campaign at the time, but they were so sick of what was happening in Washington they saw him as a chance to drive change.
I thought it was one fellow giving me some interesting insight. Turns out he was bang on, and that anger in rural America was deeper and more widespread than any pollster could have imagined.
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I have since read several pieces warning that Trump’s politics could gain traction in Canada.
The urban-rural divide and divisive populism in the United States are prominent, and we should be mindful of that here. Canada is moving in that direction because immigration tends to focus on expanding cities while rural areas tend to see population declines.
In recent Ontario elections, the Liberals’ policies focused on urban areas — with great success.
These differences can be exploited, but not in the way Trump exploited rural voters’ anger. Most Canadians want their governments to focus on the economy and social programs. They generally reject highly divisive politics.
Indeed, one could argue that the final nail in Stephen Harper’s 2015 campaign was a proposal to enact a snitch line for barbaric cultural practices.
In Alberta, the Wildrose Party was poised to win in 2012 when divisive comments concerning gays and skin colour sank it. And last year, when Albertans finally rejected the Progressive Conservative party, voters turned to the NDP.
The most successful populist appeal in Canada in recent years occurred in Ontario in 1990. PC Mike Harris promised big tax cuts and a crack down on welfare recipients. But people grew wary of demonizing welfare recipients after a pregnant woman died in her sweltering apartment. And while Harris won two terms, we have not seen the likes of him again in Canada.
There is an indication right in front of us of whether divisive politics is on the rise in Canada. It is in the race for the federal Conservative leadership. Steven Blaney’s first major policy announcement was to seek a ban on the niqab, and Kellie Leitch wants a values test for new Canadians.
Let’s watch what happens.
