A late spring and significant changes in relative profitability should bring surprises in the western Canadian crop mix.
This newspaper will go to press before Statistics Canada is scheduled to release its seeding intentions report April 24. Although much maligned, the report will be the best snapshot to date of producer intentions.
However, seeding decisions continue to evolve and producers answered the survey questions weeks ago.
Agriculture Canada’s Market Analysis Group and most private forecasters have been predicting a decline in canola acreage. For instance, Brenda Tjaden Lepp of FarmLink Marketing Solutions is predicting 20 million acres of canola this year, down from 21.5 million last year.
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Producers face the reality of shifting grain price expectations
Significant price shifts have occurred in various grains as compared to what was expected at the beginning of the calendar year. Crop insurance prices can be used as a base for the changes.
However, canola may be gaining acres. Canola prices have held up well while wheat prices have softened. Plus, canola is a crop that’s quickly seeded, and producers are generally more comfortable seeding canola a bit on the late side compared to other options.
Over the winter, most analysts were projecting an increase in wheat acreage, but a number of factors are now pointing in the opposite direction. Producers didn’t need to sell wheat for cash flow and many missed the high prices that came shortly after harvest. A lot of that wheat is still sitting in bins. The carryover will decrease the appetite to put more in the ground.
For the wheat that is seeded, there will be a major shift to classes other than the traditional hard red spring. Many producers have concluded that there’s more money to be made going after higher yields rather than a small potential price advantage.
On durum, the traditional price premium over spring wheat has been absent. As well, growing conditions in northern Africa have been good, which means our biggest durum customers are unlikely to be as active in the market. Durum acres will be down.
The late spring will attract more barley and oat acres. Barley may not get back to its five-year average, but it’ll be close. Oat acres have steadily declined in recent years, but reasonable price expectations and the benefit of early maturity will likely reverse that trend this spring.
Most analysts have been predicting a significant increase in flax acreage. Flax is a crop that producers are willing to seed later in the spring. That, combined with strong price prospects, will propel acreage higher.
Soybeans are the new kid on the block. Delayed seeding may cause the expected acreage explosion to be trimmed back.
A drop has been expected in lentil acreage, but red lentil prices have surged higher with attractive new crop prices available. Even large green lentils have improved. Acres could end up steady or even higher than last year.
Pea acres should be up, given the attractive prices and their early maturity. However, chickpea acres will drop. Prices are disappointing, and getting chickpeas to mature before the first fall frost could be a challenge.
Mustard and canaryseed are crops to watch. They are both minor acreage crops in which Canadian production accounts for a major portion of the world export trade. We can single-handedly depress prices by growing too much.
Of course, weather remains the big question mark. It’s late and wet and that increases our vulnerability. A couple of widespread precipitation events in the weeks ahead could dramatically alter what is seeded and how many acres get planted at all.
