Efforts to revitalize the wheat sector must give as much attention to increasing demand as to raising yields.
If not, production could outstrip demand and the ultimate goal of improving the profits of wheat growers will fail.
It is no secret that wheat in North America is losing ground to other crops.
In the last 20 years, wheat acres in the United States have fallen about 25 percent and in Canada they’re down 20 percent.
Reasons for the decline include decreased profitability relative to other crops, poor productivity gains, inadequate research, increased competition from the Black Sea region and consumer worries about wheat’s healthfulness.
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G20 agriculture ministers recognized the inadequate attention paid to wheat in 2011, noting that globally corn gets four times the investment.
Just last month, American wheat growers, tired of seeing their crop languish, launched a plan to revitalize their industry. Cereals Canada is also working on a strategic research plan.
Wheat must not be allowed to languish. It is the most important food crop, providing on average 20 percent of the food calories for the world’s population. It is the most widely grown and traded crop.
For farmers, it is an important crop in areas not suited to corn and oilseeds and is important for rotations to prevent the buildup of disease.
Leaders of the wheat revival understandably focus a lot on yield.
U.S. wheat yields rose only 16 percent over the past 30 years, while soybean yield rose 38 percent and corn 42 percent.
Yields are important, but so too is the recognition that corn and soybean yield increases came hand in hand with demand increases.
U.S. corn production since 2000 is up almost 50 percent but its price did not decline. Indeed, through much of the period, its price increased because of booming demand.
Corn is more versatile than wheat. It is an animal feed, ethanol feed stock and human food. It supplies high fructose syrup, components for processed food, industrial products and alcohol.
Improving global incomes caused vegetable oil consumption to double since 2000 and rising meat demand boosted demand for oilseed meal.
Wheat is basically a human food eaten in bread, pasta and bakery products. It can be used as an animal feed and to make ethanol, but its composition makes it a secondary choice behind corn.
World wheat per capita consumption is stagnant so total demand mostly follows population increase.
Climate change poses a threat to production so we need varieties with greater stress tolerance but when the weather co-operates, there could be huge over-production.
If we don’t find ways to increase demand, then research and breeding that sparks big yield increases will only depress wheat prices and the crop will continue to fall behind.
Focus must also be on developing new uses and demand streams for wheat. That could mean developing varieties with new starch and protein profiles for different applications.
Also, research must go beyond the opportunities supplied by increased applications of costly chemical and fertilizer inputs.
To be sustainable, improvements in water and nutrient-use efficiency are imperative.
