CURRENT political perceptions almost always are based on incomplete information, moments of judgment based on ever-changing facts.
This month’s political certainty may seem laughably erroneous just weeks or months later as circumstances change.
It is why those who criticized the Liberal government for all but leaving agriculture out of the February budget should be rethinking their criticism.
As the political universe unfolds in Ottawa, it may have been a blessing in disguise. It looks less likely by the day that the budget actually will be approved by Parliament before an election is called.
Read Also
Agriculture needs to prepare for government spending cuts
As government makes necessary cuts to spending, what can be reduced or restructured in the budgets for agriculture?
First, let’s have a brief recap.
Critics were quick to lambaste the Liberal government when the February budget contained almost no agricultural announcements. They dismissed as a dodge government arguments that new spending did not have to be announced in the budget because the Canadian Agricultural Income Stabilization program is statutory, bills are paid when claims are made and a payout of more than $1 billion is expected this year. There is no need for budget announcements, Liberals said. Farm support is embedded in government financial planning.
Still, critics on opposition benches and in some farm groups wanted to see recognition of the farm income crisis in the budget.
Billions of dollars in Kyoto spending, child care, aid to cities, money to health care and cheques to Atlantic provinces were announced in the spendingest budget in a political generation. How could Ralph Goodale, from the heart of Saskatchewan farm country, ignore the sector in the midst of crisis? What is agriculture to the Liberals, chopped liver?
Well, the budget bill remains mired in Parliament, unlikely to be passed into law before the third week in May when the Conservatives may well decide to topple the scandal-plagued and increasingly unpopular Liberals for a June 27 election.
Those grand budget promises will die if that scenario plays out, leaving child care, cities, Kyoto and Atlantic provinces waiting to see if the next government will honour the commitments.
Agriculture would be little affected by an early election. CAIS, with its flaws and its billion dollar-plus budget, will keep operating. The billion dollars in farm aid announced in March would stand because it was funded out of a surplus recorded in the fiscal year ended March 31.
Two pieces of legislation could be affected if Parliament is cut short.
Bill C-27, affecting the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, almost certainly will not come out of the House of Commons agriculture committee before the end of May and it will have proposed amendments that will have to be debated by the Commons and then the Senate.
In fact, the CFIA legislation has no chance of clearing parliamentary hurdles until autumn at the earliest. It may die with an election call even if the election is delayed into next year and the minority Liberal government gets to choose the timing of the next vote.
Meanwhile, the Liberals are trying to rush legislation to change the Canadian Grain Commission and the Canada Transportation Act. It will be a race against time. But at least a dead budget will not kill agricultural support programs already paid for or embedded in law.
