A WELL-CONNECTED Ottawa lobby insider last week predicted the likely federal election day: Dec. 3.
It was chosen after his government relations firm did some work for a client wondering what the political climate is like in Quebec.
The conclusion was that the Conservatives, after declaring the Québécois a nation, supporting supply management, finessing the Afghan file and promising to reduce federal intrusion into areas of provincial jurisdiction, could take as many as half the Bloc Québécois seats in the next election.
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That would be more than 20 additional seats, putting the Conservatives within reach of a majority with a smattering of seat gains elsewhere. Of course, that assumes they can retain all the 126 seats they now hold and that is questionable.
It is inconceivable, he said, that prime minister Stephen Harper will not find a way to take advantage of that Quebec analysis and Liberal weakness.
Well, don’t cancel your vacation flight on Dec. 3 just yet but that date is part of the buzz in election-expectant Ottawa.
This week, with a throne speech and the likely initial opposition to it, begins a period of great uncertainty and political gamesmanship on Parliament Hill. Every day will have a “this may be the last day” feel to it.
Political instability leads to hypertension and increased opportunity for political misstep.
An election is far from certain but certainly possible.
So a senior Agriculture Canada insider agreed last week to assess the consequences for the agricultural agenda if an early election happens. There was no good news.
Federal-provincial negotiations to produce an agreement by early winter to replace existing programs that expire March 31, 2008 would be put on hold.
Agriculture minister Gerry Ritz claims that talk of stalemate over the replacement for the agricultural framework misses the point about how much behind-the-scenes bureaucratic negotiation has been going on, but the truth is that ministers must make key decisions before bureaucrats can write the final deal.
Federal-provincial ministers last met in late June with key issues unresolved.
Provincial elections this autumn in Ontario and Saskatchewan have delayed resumption of ministerial negotiations. A federal vote would put them off into next year with the March 31 clock ticking.
Then there are predictions that World Trade Organization talks may actually get down to brass tacks in Geneva this autumn, requiring compromises to reach a final text. Again, it is far from a sure thing but if it happened during an election, Canada’s political decision makers likely would be missing from the process.
On the domestic front, planned revisions to the Canada Grains Act including a modernization of the Canadian Grain Commission structure would be set back.
“Really, everything would be put on hold,” said the departmental official.
That’s the thing about minority governments.
Voters often say they prefer them because it keeps political ambitions in check and allows Parliament to more accurately reflect political divisions in the country.
But the political uncertainty and short-term expectations make long-term policy planning difficult.
