Elsewhere in the pages of this week’s newspaper, Ontario agriculture minister Helen Johns predicts dire consequences if Ottawa forces an April 1 launch of new national farm programs over the objections of some provinces and most farm groups.
She predicts program confusion, industry trauma and increased federal-provincial tension. She predicts at least four provinces won’t sign, including Quebec and Ontario.
Johns used tough words about federal minister Lyle Vanclief, words like bully tactic and ramming a policy down the throats of farmers. She accused Ottawa of trying to lure some Ontario farm groups into the federal camp to undermine her position.
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What happens if she is proven correct?
Can there be a national farm safety net program with the country’s two largest provinces and most farm leaders in
opposition?
In truth, the federal minister and his critics have engaged in a display of brinkmanship that will end soon.
If Vanclief imposes his will, has he won? His policy weapon would be to punish non-signing provinces by withholding safety net program funds.
Let’s suppose an April 1 policy launch that does not include Quebec, Ontario, Prince Edward Island and Manitoba. Ministers and farmers from those provinces will make it clear they do not oppose the principles of the APF, but oppose a launch before the program details and their consequences are clear.
What would be wrong with delaying for a year, until the farmers for whom the programs have been designed are comfortable, they will ask.
It is a question Vanclief would have to answer in cabinet, a cabinet that he has refused to ask for an implementation extension past April 1.
Consider the political landscape of the provinces affected. Ontario is the political base of the federal Liberal government, which has won 100 or more of the province’s 103 parliamentary seats in the past three elections. With provincial farm groups speaking almost as one on this, Ontario Liberal MPs and ministers would presumably have some tough questions about why the rush and what political damage is being caused by the withholding of funds.
At least one Ontario minister, Susan Whelan, has been critical of Vanclief’s handling of the file and leadership contenders like Sheila Copps and John Manley could be persuaded to join the questioning.
That concern would be magnified in Quebec where elections are a battle between Canada and separatism, where a separatist Parti Québecois government is looking for anti-Ottawa issues and where the Liberals hold half the seats with hopes for more.
Then there is Prince Edward Island, which has sent nothing but Liberals to Ottawa since 1988 and has Vanclief critic Wayne Easter at the cabinet table as solicitor-general.
Vanclief may be able to get his way with the provinces, perhaps with support from the powerful Prime Minister’s Office. Winning support of an increasingly rambunctious Liberal caucus and a cabinet looking to the next Liberal leader could prove a tougher sell.
