SASKATOON – Young farmers are optimistic about the future of prairie agriculture, believing their farm management strategies will help them successfully navigate the challenges of a deregulated and diversified industry.
That was the overall finding of an exclusive Western Producer telephone survey conducted this winter by the Angus Reid Group.
The survey, based on 600 interviews with farmers under the age of 40, sought to find out how young farmers plan to cope in the new circumstances facing agriculture: Loss of the Crow transportation subsidy; reductions in other support programs; higher grain freight rates; expanded free trade; and rising input costs.
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Young farmers are confident they can succeed – 93 percent believe they will still be farming in 10 years; 76 percent think they will have a higher standard of living than their parents; and 60 percent believe they will be better off than non-farming friends and relatives.
There were a few dark clouds, however – 87 percent are concerned with the future of family farms in general, because the number of corporate farms is expected to increase.
How are they going to succeed? Although different groups had different strategies, overall there were several common themes:
- Expansion: They expect their average farm size to grow from 1,455 acres now to 1,702 in the year 2000.
- Changing crops: Almost 40 percent said they would grow different crops in 2000.
- More livestock: The percentage with livestock operations will increase to 80 percent from 74 percent.
- Information: They plan to continue relying most heavily on farm publications, but will increasingly also make use of specialized consultants and electronic information links.
- Risk management: 78 percent said they are likely to change their farms slowly, to minimize debt; 78 percent are likely to increase their use of risk-management tools such as forward-pricing contracts and futures markets.
- Investment: In the next five years, 71 percent are likely to buy computer equipment; 59 percent a combine; 45 percent an air seeder; and 43 percent a satellite dish.
- Diversification: 52 percent said they are likely to develop or expand an agriculture-related business. And 58 percent expect to be relying on off-farm employment for part of their income.
The young farmers, however, are far from all thinking alike.
Analysts from the agrifood division of the Angus Reid Group, one of Canada’s largest and most experienced polling companies, said four clearly identifiable groups emerge from the data.
“Concerned Operators” have smaller farms, are less likely to change farming practices, and are more concerned about their future. “Optimistic Traditionalists” are better off and more likely to consider change.
Both the “Progressive Producer” and “Innovative Investor” groups are far keener to adopt change and more likely to see farming as a business, with the “investor” group planning to be most aggressive in capital spending and expanding farms.
