Ottawa-based trade consultant and former trade negotiator Peter Clark says he is skeptical about claims that World Trade Organization talks are making enough progress to produce a significant result by the end of the year.
Interviewed as he boarded a plane last week for WTO meetings in Geneva, Clark said there remains a serious gap between developed country rhetoric at the talks and demands by developing countries for reduced domestic subsidies and increased market access.
“The developing countries are saying they did not end up getting what they were promised last time and that result was weighted against them,” he said. “They see that happening again and they are not prepared to go along.”
Read Also
August rain welcome, but offered limited relief
Increased precipitation in August aids farmers prior to harvest in southern prairies of Canada.
One of the key issues is an insistence from developing nations that developed countries should open their markets to increased imports faster than developing countries because their farmers still have to compete against subsidized farm products from developed nations.
They also want more precise and enforceable promises that rich countries will reduce subsidies rather than breaking down trade barriers in developing countries so they can flood markets with cheap product.
“I think they are going to want to see much more specific commitments than they have so far,” Clark said.
WTO promoters have been predicting that negotiators will develop the outlines of a deal by the end of July in Geneva and then agree to substantial details at a ministerial meeting in Hong Kong in December, with a final WTO deal ratified in 2006.
Clark said that is too optimistic unless dramatic concessions are made soon.
“I don’t expect significant movement by July and I don’t expect the outline of a deal in December,” Clark said. “In fact, I don’t believe there will be a deal until 2007 or 2008.”
WTO members and Canadian farm leaders insist a deal must come before then so the process of reducing trade barriers, as well as production and trade-distorting subsidies, can begin as soon as possible.
Clark was in Geneva to present a study commissioned by Dairy Farmers of Canada that argues in favour of keeping border protections, including dairy over-quota tariffs, as long as multibillion-dollar subsidies to American dairy farmers allow them to sell product into international markets at less than production costs knowing that their government would more than compensate for the loss.
