It likely will be next year before Canada knows if its World Trade Organization challenge to American corn subsidies will be successful, says Canada’s chief WTO agriculture negotiator.
Steve Verheul said in a Jan. 29 interview that consultations with the United States over Canada’s complaint that U.S. farm bill subsidies and export credit programs violate WTO restraints begin in early February in Geneva.
If, as expected, there is no resolution, Canada can request a WTO panel to review the arguments and evidence. The U.S. could reject the first panel request but not the second.
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If a panel is established in summer or autumn, it likely would report in the first half of next year.
“These things take time,” said Verheul.
Meanwhile, the 25-member European Union and seven other countries have asked to join Canada’s challenge and agriculture minister Chuck Strahl said a number of countries have shown interest and support.
Last weekend, he attended informal trade talks in Davos, Switzerland and the Canadian challenge created a buzz.
“There is quite a lot of interest in this and it came up in most of our bilaterals we had with countries that were interested in what we are doing and why,” he said in a Jan. 29 interview. He said several countries have offered to help Canada prepare the technical arguments to be used in the challenge.
But win or lose, Canadian officials say the challenge at the WTO is having an impact on development of the new U.S. farm bill this year.
Strahl noted that U.S. agriculture secretary Mike Johanns has mentioned the international challenge several times as a reason to change the focus of the new farm bill to less production and trade-distorting supports.
Meanwhile, trade and agriculture ministers from 24 countries met in Davos Jan. 27 to voice support for resurrecting WTO agricultural trade talks suspended in July.
However, there were no concrete compromise proposals from the major players and therefore no practical indications that negotiations can be resurrected.
“I think there is a sense that the U.S. and Europe are engaged in discussions but really, we’re waiting to see if they make progress that is acceptable to others before we’ll know if talks are back on,” said Verheul.
“I think it’s still a long shot but at least people are talking,” said Strahl.
The WTO presumption is that if there is not enough progress to convince the U.S. Congress to extend fast-track negotiating authority by this summer, the WTO talks will be stalled for at least several years.