The United Nations is conceding that the world will fall far short of its hunger-reduction targets that were first set in 1996 and re-affirmed last year in Rome.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization now says it expects the number of chronically undernourished people to be 610 million in 2015 instead of the 410 million promised by world leaders at the 1996 World Food Summit.
“Even by 2030, about 440 million undernourished may remain,” said an FAO World Agriculture report.
However, despite the failure to meet that target, the report offered an optimistic look at the potential for farmers to feed the world.
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UN analysts predict population growth will slow down and food production will be more than able to keep pace.
“Massive strides have been made in improving food security,” the report said.
In fact, the FAO analysis suggests that demand for cereal grains in the world will increase by little more than one percent per year as per capita consumption of cereals declines. It has fallen from an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent in the 1970s.
“The decline (in growth rate) is not cause for alarm,” the report said.
“It was above all the natural result of slower population growth and shifts in human diets and animal feeds.”
Ironically, the situation will worsen in food-deficient countries.
The gap between need and supply will continue to grow in developing countries, from a 103 million tonne deficiency in the late 1990s to a projected 265 million tonnes annually by 2030.
“This gap can be bridged by increased surpluses from traditional grain exporters and by new exports from the transition countries, which are expected to shift from being net importers to being net exporters.”
The FAO report also complained that the current World Trade Organization negotiations appear to be doing little for developing countries.
“If future reforms focus too narrowly on the removal of subsidies in the (developed countries), most of the gains will probably be reaped by consumers in developed countries,” it said.
“Developing countries should benefit more from the removal of trade barriers for products in which they have a comparative advantage such as sugar, fruits and vegetables, from reduced tariffs for processed agricultural commodities and from deeper preferential access to markets for the least developed countries.”
