At this time of year, everyone – from analysts to grain company executives to Statistics Canada – wants to get inside farmers’ heads.
The goal? To find out how many acres of each crop they and their neighbors are going to plant, and from there, extrapolate the size of each Canadian crop.
Statistics Canada releases its official estimate at the end of the month, which is based on a survey of farmers done in early March.
In the meantime, United Grain Growers’ Marketing Services polled its elevator managers for acreage estimates in their districts in early April. Trend yields for each crop allowed an estimate of Canadian production. The results were released last week.
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Wheat production is forecast by the UGG to be 23.78 million tonnes, up a marginal 426,000 tonnes compared to the 1994 crop. About one-third of that increase is durum.
UGG forecasts a slight downturn in canola production: 7.09 million tonnes from 7.19 in 1994. That’s a mere one percent change.
Barley production is predicted to recover from 1994’s 11.7 million tonnes to 12.8 million tonnes.
And flax production is predicted to be 1.35 million tonnes, including 200,000 tonnes of solin.
UGG didn’t break out estimates for all the special crops. Collective acreage of peas, sunflowers, canary seed, mustard, dry beans, buckwheat and lentils is forecast at 4.69 million acres, up eight percent from 4.35 million in 1994.
Greg Kostal, senior analyst with UGG, said the numbers cement the trend away from cereal crops towards diversification.
He said it used to be that an increase in wheat prices meant a wholesale increase in wheat acreage, regardless of other cropping opportunities.
“Wheat was the bread-and-butter crop,” Kostal said. “But farmers are more used to alternate crops than they were 10 years ago, they’re more responsive to market signals. Their cash cows are peas, canola, flax, mustard.”
Kostal cautioned this new breed of market-responsive farmer will likely be adjusting seeding plans, even now.
“With the recent collapse in oilseed prices, we may still see more cereals,” he said.
The decision will hinge on profitability. Oat prices have strengthened enough to lure extra acreage, he guessed. So have domestic barley prices.
And as prices in the oilseed complex come down, the price of competitive crops in the meal market, like peas, may strengthen.
