The Canadian Wheat Board is hoping that as much as half of this year’s wheat crop will fall into the two top grades.
However, with about one-third of the crop still unharvested as September drew to a close, it remains to be seen if those hopes will be realized.
“Obviously the longer the harvest continues, the harder it is to see any upside on these numbers,” said CWB chief operating officer Ward Weisensel. “But at the same time, we are still hearing reports of some No. 2 CWRS coming in.”
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Weisensel said Oct. 3 the board expects 45 to 50 percent of the spring wheat crop will grade No. 1 or 2.
That’s better than last year’s disastrous 30 percent, but still well below the long-term average of 65 to 70 percent. How the rest of the wheat crop grades out is impossible to predict, say industry officials.
“I think one can probably assume that a lot of what isn’t yet harvested won’t be a 2,” said Agriculture Canada wheat analyst Glenn Lennox. “But is it a 3 or 4 or feed? I don’t think anybody’s going to know until it’s harvested.”
The board’s estimate is more positive than one issued by Saskatchewan Wheat Pool a week earlier, in which it said 40 percent would grade No. 1 or 2, with No. 3 and feed each accounting for 25 to 35 percent.
The crop is also lower in protein than usual. The Canadian Grain Commission said as of Sept. 30, the average protein content of red spring wheat is 13.6 percent. While that’s higher than last year’s 13.3 percent, the previous four-year average was 14.4 percent.
Weisensel said the board will have to be cautious to ensure it can supply the traditional buyers of high quality, high protein wheat, mainly the domestic milling industry, Japan and the United Kingdom.
“They’re certainly being kept informed about the situation,” he said.
The board gained experience in finding markets for lower quality wheat last year and that should help as it sells this year’s crop, he added.
Lennox said while the emphasis is always placed on the top two grades, No. 3 is considered to be a fine quality milling wheat in most parts of the world, and the board should have no trouble finding a home for it.
“It’s really a better milling wheat than the hard red winter or soft red winter you’d get from Europe or the United States,” he said.
While certain areas suffered more than others from the wet harvest conditions, the quality is more evenly distributed across the Prairies than last year, when virtually all the high quality was in southwestern Saskatchewan and southern Alberta. That should make it easier for the board to gather together and ship the kind of grain it needs to meet sales commitments.
“It will be better than last year because last year we were completely reliant on Canadian Pacific Railway to get the high quality,” said Weisensel.
“This year we’re not tied to one railway.”
The board has also reduced its export projection for 2005-06 by one million tonnes to 16 to 17 million tonnes.
